BUFFALO
SABRESBUF
22-15-4 | Road
5
NEW YORK
RANGERSNYR
20-18-6 | Home
2
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Colten Ellis
#92 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Jonathan Quick
#32 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colten Ellis | None-None | 2.00 | 0.938 | -- |
| Jonathan Quick | None-None | 4.11 | 0.800 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
2.00 Ldr
GAA
4.11
0.938 Ldr
Save %
0.800
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
SABRES
0%
RANGERS
100%
SABRES
--
RANGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around NYR +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYR)
BUF By 1 goal
19.7%
BUF By 2-3 goals
29.6%
NYR By 1 goal
12.1%
NYR By 2-3 goals
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Buffalo
3
BUFFALO
New York
2
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Buffalo
3
BUFFALO
New York
4
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Sabres
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rangers
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rangers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim
Rangers (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u6.0
Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 8, 2026
BUF @ NYR
5 - 3
Jan 8, 2026
BUF @ NYR
5 - 2
Oct 9, 2025
NYR @ BUF
4 - 0
Feb 22, 2025
NYR @ BUF
2 - 8
Dec 11, 2024
NYR @ BUF
3 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5)
+17.4% more
Buffalo: 27.5
vs
New York: 22.7
Hits (L5)
+53.2% more
New York: 26.8
vs
Buffalo: 17.5
Power Play % (L5)
+52.5%
New York: 53.7%
vs
Buffalo: 1.2%
Blocked Shots (L5)
+45.3% more
New York: 19.8
vs
Buffalo: 13.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BUF Score
3.0
5
NYR Score
2.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
19.8 / 13.6
12.0 / 20.0
Faceoff %
52.1 / 52.2
62.7 / 37.3
Hits
26.8 / 17.5
32.0 / 16.0
Power Play %
53.7 / 1.2
0.0 / 50.0
Shots on Goal
22.7 / 27.5
32.0 / 21.0
Takeaways
4.2 / 4.4
5.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYR
BUF
NYR
BUF
ML
80%
4-1
67%
2-1
40%
2-3
67%
2-1
ATS
80%
4-1
33%
1-2
60%
3-2
100%
3-0
TTL
60%
3-2
33%
1-2
60%
3-2
33%
1-2
Contextual Game News
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