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HOUSTON

TEXANSHOU

12-5  |  Road

30
FINAL
Mon, Jan 12 • 8:15 PM ET
Acrisure Stadium
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

STEELERSPIT

10-7  |  Home

6
AI Model Win Probability
TEXANS
0%
📊
STEELERS
100%
TEXANS --
STEELERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
47.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Houston)
TexansHOU (-3.5) 0 SteelersPIT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Texans Cover

69.1%

Steelers Cover

30.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around HOU -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

HOU By 1-6 points

16.5%

HOU By 7-13 points

19.3%

PIT By 1-6 points

12.9%

PIT By 7-13 points

9.6%

AI Model Projected Score
27
HOUSTON
20
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
23
HOUSTON
27
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Texans Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Steelers Loss
50% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Texans (+3) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Steelers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o38.0 Loss
Proj Total: 47.0
D
Sim u38.0 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 12, 2026 HOU @ PIT 30 - 6
Oct 1, 2023 PIT @ HOU 6 - 30
Sep 27, 2020 HOU @ PIT 21 - 28
Dec 25, 2017 PIT @ HOU 34 - 6
Oct 20, 2014 HOU @ PIT 23 - 30
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +19.5% more
Houston: 97.5 vs Pittsburgh: 78.5
First Downs (L5) +18.7% more
Houston: 18.4 vs Pittsburgh: 15.0
Time of Possession (L5) +11.0% more
Houston: 0.5 vs Pittsburgh: 0.4
Total Yards (L5) +10.0% more
Houston: 311.3 vs Pittsburgh: 280.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 27.0 30
PIT Score 20.0 6
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
52%MONEY48%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
65%MONEY35%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
49%MONEY51%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
PIT Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
PIT Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.0
PIT
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
HOU
PIT
HOU
ML
75% 3-1
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
ATS
50% 2-2
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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