Home / NFL Projections NFL / Chargers @ Patriots LAC @ NE

LOS ANGELES

CHARGERSLAC

11-6  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sun, Jan 11 • 8:00 PM ET
Gillette Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW ENGLAND

PATRIOTSNE

14-3  |  Home

16
AI Model Win Probability
CHARGERS
100%
📊
PATRIOTS
0%
CHARGERS --
PATRIOTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
40.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
NEW ENGLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (New England)
ChargersLAC (-3.5) 0 PatriotsNE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Chargers Cover

19.6%

Patriots Cover

80.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NE -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NE)

LAC By 1-6 points

9.3%

LAC By 7-13 points

5.9%

NE By 1-6 points

14.2%

NE By 7-13 points

19.5%

AI Model Projected Score
14
LOS ANGELES
26
NEW ENGLAND
Simulated Score
20
LOS ANGELES
24
NEW ENGLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Patriots Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Patriots Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Patriots (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim Patriots (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u45.5 Win
Proj Total: 40.0
D
Sim u45.5 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 11, 2026 LAC @ NE 3 - 16
Dec 28, 2024 LAC @ NE 40 - 7
Dec 3, 2023 LAC @ NE 6 - 0
Oct 31, 2021 NE @ LAC 27 - 24
Dec 6, 2020 NE @ LAC 45 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +78.3% more
New England: 267.8 vs Los Angeles: 150.2
Yards Per Play (L5) +35.9% more
New England: 6.1 vs Los Angeles: 4.5
Total Yards (L5) +30.2% more
New England: 382.5 vs Los Angeles: 293.8
First Downs (L5) +18.3% more
New England: 21.0 vs Los Angeles: 17.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAC Score 14.0 3
NE Score 26.0 16
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
31%MONEY69%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAC
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -9.8 ATS +/-: -10.3
NE Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAC
0-3-1 (0.0%)
Margin: -9.8 ATS +/-: -10.3
NE Advantage
2-1-1 (66.7%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
LAC
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -3.0
NE
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -10.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NE
LAC
NE
LAC
ML
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
ATS
33% 1-2-1
33% 1-2-1
33% 1-2-1
0% 0-3-1
TTL
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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