Home / NFL Projections NFL / Bills @ Jaguars BUF @ JAX

BUFFALO

BILLSBUF

12-5  |  Road

27
FINAL
Sun, Jan 11 • 1:00 PM ET
EverBank Stadium
View Odds Details →

JACKSONVILLE

JAGUARSJAX

13-4  |  Home

24
AI Model Win Probability
BILLS
100%
📊
JAGUARS
0%
BILLS --
JAGUARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
35.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
JACKSONVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Jacksonville)
BillsBUF (-3.5) 0 JaguarsJAX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bills Cover

6.7%

Jaguars Cover

93.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around JAX -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JAX)

BUF By 1-6 points

3.8%

BUF By 7-13 points

1.8%

JAX By 1-6 points

7.9%

JAX By 7-13 points

14.6%

AI Model Projected Score
7
BUFFALO
28
JACKSONVILLE
Simulated Score
20
BUFFALO
27
JACKSONVILLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Jaguars Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Jaguars Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Jaguars (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim Jaguars (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u51.0 Push
Proj Total: 35.0
D
Sim u51.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 11, 2026 BUF @ JAX 27 - 24
Sep 23, 2024 JAX @ BUF 10 - 47
Oct 8, 2023 JAX @ BUF 25 - 20
Nov 7, 2021 BUF @ JAX 6 - 9
Nov 25, 2018 JAX @ BUF 21 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +36.9% more
Buffalo: 174.6 vs Jacksonville: 110.2
Turnovers (L5) +30.6% more
Buffalo: 1.8 vs Jacksonville: 1.3
Total Yards (L5) +15.7% more
Buffalo: 385.2 vs Jacksonville: 324.9
Yards Per Play (L5) +14.3% more
Buffalo: 6.1 vs Jacksonville: 5.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BUF Score 7.0 27
JAX Score 28.0 24
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
63%MONEY37%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BUF
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
JAX
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +11.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BUF
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
JAX
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +11.1
⚖️ Over/Under
BUF
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +8.8
JAX
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -7.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JAX
BUF
JAX
BUF
ML
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
ATS
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
TTL
100% 4-0
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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