Home / NFL Projections NFL / Packers @ Bears GB @ CHI

GREEN BAY

PACKERSGB

9-7-1  |  Road

27
FINAL
Sat, Jan 10 • 8:00 PM ET
Soldier Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

BEARSCHI

11-6  |  Home

31
AI Model Win Probability
PACKERS
0%
📊
BEARS
100%
PACKERS --
BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
37.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
GREEN BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Green Bay)
PackersGB (-3.5) 0 BearsCHI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Packers Cover

88.8%

Bears Cover

11.2%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around GB -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GB)

GB By 1-6 points

10.7%

GB By 7-13 points

17.5%

CHI By 1-6 points

5.9%

CHI By 7-13 points

3.2%

AI Model Projected Score
27
GREEN BAY
10
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
20
GREEN BAY
24
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Packers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bears Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Packers (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim Bears (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u45.5 Loss
Proj Total: 37.0
D
Sim u45.5 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 10, 2026 GB @ CHI 27 - 31
Dec 20, 2025 GB @ CHI 16 - 22
Dec 7, 2025 CHI @ GB 21 - 28
Jan 5, 2025 CHI @ GB 24 - 22
Nov 17, 2024 GB @ CHI 20 - 19
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +41.5% more
Green Bay: 1.1 vs Chicago: 0.6
Net Passing Yards (L5) +9.7% more
Green Bay: 221.2 vs Chicago: 199.7
Yards Per Play (L5) +8.3% more
Green Bay: 5.8 vs Chicago: 5.3
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +8.0% more
Green Bay: 0.5 vs Chicago: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GB Score 27.0 27
CHI Score 10.0 31
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
34%MONEY66%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
51%MONEY49%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GB
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -10.0
CHI Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: +9.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GB
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -10.0
CHI Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: +9.9
⚖️ Over/Under
GB
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.5
CHI
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHI
GB
CHI
GB
ML
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
ATS
75% 3-1
0% 0-3-1
100% 4-0
33% 1-2-1
TTL
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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