PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
21-15 | Road
117
MEMPHIS
GRIZZLIESMEM
16-20 | Home
98
AI Model Win Probability
SUNS
0%
GRIZZLIES
100%
SUNS
--
GRIZZLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
220.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MEM +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)
PHX By 1-7 points
27.4%
PHX By 8-14 points
21.6%
MEM By 1-7 points
20.1%
MEM By 8-14 points
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Phoenix
112
PHOENIX
Memphis
108
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
Phoenix
118
PHOENIX
Memphis
114
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Suns
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Suns
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Grizzlies (+7)
Win
Proj Spread: +4.0
D
Sim
Suns (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u231.5
Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Sim
u231.5
Win
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 30, 2026
PHX @ MEM
131 - 105
Jan 7, 2026
PHX @ MEM
117 - 98
Oct 29, 2025
MEM @ PHX
114 - 113
Mar 10, 2025
PHX @ MEM
118 - 120
Feb 25, 2025
PHX @ MEM
148 - 151
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+16.4% more
Phoenix: 9.1
vs
Memphis: 7.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.4%
Phoenix: 35.7%
vs
Memphis: 33.3%
Blocks (L5)
+111.8% more
Memphis: 5.9
vs
Phoenix: 2.8
Assists (L5)
+25.8% more
Memphis: 29.1
vs
Phoenix: 23.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHX Score
112.0
117
MEM Score
108.0
98
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.3 / 35.7
32.0 / 39.0
Assists
29.1 / 23.2
23.0 / 31.0
Blocks
5.9 / 2.8
2.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
44.5 / 45.1
42.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
76.3 / 77.8
57.0 / 63.0
Rebounding
49.5 / 45.1
47.0 / 51.0
Steals
7.6 / 9.1
9.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
17.0 / 13.9
18.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHX
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
MEM
25-57-0
(30.5%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
MEM
37-45-0
(45.1%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
PHX
MEM
PHX
ML
57%
59-44
57%
60-45
50%
41-41
51%
45-43
ATS
63%
65-38
58%
59-43-3
50%
41-41
51%
45-43
TTL
70%
71-31-1
59%
61-42-2
100%
82-0
100%
88-0
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