NEW ORLEANS
PELICANSNO
8-30 | Road
100
ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
17-21 | Home
117
AI Model Win Probability
PELICANS
0%
HAWKS
100%
PELICANS
--
HAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
260.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ATL +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
NO By 1-7 points
26.8%
NO By 8-14 points
18.6%
ATL By 1-7 points
23.0%
ATL By 8-14 points
12.2%
AI Model Projected Score
New Orleans
131
NEW ORLEANS
Atlanta
129
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
New Orleans
108
NEW ORLEANS
Atlanta
112
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pelicans
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hawks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Hawks (+10.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim
Hawks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o246.5
Loss
Proj Total: 260.0
D
Sim
u246.5
Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 7, 2026
NO @ ATL
100 - 117
Nov 22, 2025
ATL @ NO
115 - 98
Dec 2, 2024
NO @ ATL
112 - 124
Nov 3, 2024
ATL @ NO
126 - 111
Mar 10, 2024
NO @ ATL
116 - 103
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+57.4% more
New Orleans: 5.8
vs
Atlanta: 2.5
Turnovers (L5)
+14.4% more
New Orleans: 16.9
vs
Atlanta: 14.5
Steals (L5)
+27.9% more
Atlanta: 10.2
vs
New Orleans: 8.0
Assists (L5)
+19.8% more
Atlanta: 31.1
vs
New Orleans: 26.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NO Score
131.0
100
ATL Score
129.0
117
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.0 / 31.0
38.0 / 29.0
Assists
31.1 / 26.0
30.0 / 26.0
Blocks
2.5 / 5.8
10.0 / 9.0
Field Goal %
44.6 / 45.1
46.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
76.4 / 75.5
65.0 / 64.0
Rebounding
43.1 / 43.8
49.0 / 40.0
Steals
10.2 / 8.0
13.0 / 13.0
Turnovers
14.5 / 16.9
21.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
ATL
Advantage
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO
Advantage
45-36-1
(55.6%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
ATL
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.7
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
NO
ATL
NO
ML
50%
52-52
62%
98-61
55%
48-40
58%
48-35
ATS
53%
55-48-1
68%
107-51-1
55%
48-40
58%
48-35
TTL
53%
55-48-1
75%
119-40
100%
88-0
100%
83-0
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