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DALLAS

STARSDAL

25-10-8  |  Road

4
FINAL
Wed, Jan 7 • 7:00 PM ET
Capital One Arena
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

CAPITALSWSH

22-15-6  |  Home

1
Goaltending
Casey DeSmith
GOALTENDER

Casey DeSmith

#1 | Goaltender
@
Logan Thompson
GOALTENDER

Logan Thompson

#48 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Casey DeSmith None-None 1.00 0.958 --
Logan Thompson None-None 3.10 0.914 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
1.00 Ldr GAA 3.10
0.958 Ldr Save % 0.914
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
STARS
100%
📊
CAPITALS
0%
STARS --
CAPITALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Washington)
StarsDAL (-3.5) 0 CapitalsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Stars Cover

30.9%

Capitals Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around WSH -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

DAL By 1 goal

12.1%

DAL By 2-3 goals

9.3%

WSH By 1 goal

19.7%

WSH By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
2
DALLAS
3
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
2
DALLAS
3
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Capitals Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Capitals Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Capitals (+1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Capitals (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 7, 2026 DAL @ WSH 4 - 1
Oct 28, 2025 WSH @ DAL 0 - 1
Dec 16, 2024 WSH @ DAL 1 - 3
Oct 17, 2024 DAL @ WSH 2 - 3
Jan 27, 2024 WSH @ DAL 4 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5) +51.9% more
Washington: 20.0 vs Dallas: 13.2
Shots on Goal (L5) +20.0% more
Washington: 30.0 vs Dallas: 25.0
Faceoff % (L5) +2.7%
Washington: 52.3% vs Dallas: 49.6%
Takeaways (L5) +31.3% more
Dallas: 5.1 vs Washington: 3.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 2.0 4
WSH Score 3.0 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 20.0 / 13.2 16.0 / 11.0
Faceoff % 52.3 / 49.6 55.6 / 44.4
Hits 19.4 / 21.8 22.0 / 16.0
Power Play % 928.0 / 2644.0 0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 30.0 / 25.0 24.0 / 36.0
Takeaways 3.5 / 5.1 6.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
57%MONEY43%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
33%MONEY67%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
73%MONEY27%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
DAL
WSH
DAL
ML
100% 3-0
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
ATS
100% 3-0
0% 0-3
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
TTL
33% 1-2
100% 3-0
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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