LONGWOOD
LANCERSLONG
9-8 | Road
61
UNC ASHEVILLE
BULLDOGSUNCA
6-10 | Home
72
AI Model Win Probability
LANCERS
100%
BULLDOGS
0%
LANCERS
--
BULLDOGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
159.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-35.0
UNC ASHEVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +35.0 points (UNC Asheville)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNCA -35.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNCA)
LONG By 1-7 points
0.0%
LONG By 8-14 points
0.0%
UNCA By 1-7 points
0.3%
UNCA By 8-14 points
1.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Longwood
62
LONGWOOD
UNC Asheville
97
UNC ASHEVILLE
Simulated Score
Longwood
71
LONGWOOD
UNC Asheville
76
UNC ASHEVILLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bulldogs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bulldogs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bulldogs (-2.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -35.0
D
Sim
Bulldogs (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o148.5
Loss
Proj Total: 159.0
D
Sim
u148.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 6, 2026
LONG @ UNCA
82 - 85
Feb 12, 2026
UNCA @ LONG
79 - 74
Jan 7, 2026
LONG @ UNCA
61 - 72
Feb 22, 2025
LONG @ UNCA
82 - 87
Jan 8, 2025
UNCA @ LONG
76 - 85
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+35.1% more
Longwood: 13.9
vs
UNC Asheville: 9.0
Steals (L5)
+28.7% more
Longwood: 7.3
vs
UNC Asheville: 5.2
Turnovers (L5)
+25.5% more
Longwood: 14.9
vs
UNC Asheville: 11.1
Blocks (L5)
+12.1% more
Longwood: 3.3
vs
UNC Asheville: 2.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LONG Score
62.0
61
UNCA Score
97.0
72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.8 / 33.5
45.0 / 27.0
Assists
9.0 / 13.9
13.0 / 10.0
Blocks
2.9 / 3.3
4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
42.7 / 50.3
45.0 / 38.0
Free Throw %
66.9 / 71.4
62.0 / 65.0
Rebounding
33.7 / 37.3
40.0 / 26.0
Steals
5.2 / 7.3
5.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
11.1 / 14.9
11.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LONG
Advantage
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 3.6
ATS +/-: +0.1
UNCA
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LONG
13-16-0
(44.8%)
Margin: 3.6
ATS +/-: +0.1
UNCA
Advantage
15-14-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
LONG
17-12-0
O: 58.6% / U: 41.4%
Total +/-: +2.7
UNCA
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3%
Total +/-: -2.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNCA
LONG
UNCA
LONG
ML
53%
16-14
65%
20-11
63%
19-11
68%
21-10
ATS
57%
17-13
68%
21-10
63%
19-11
68%
21-10
TTL
60%
18-12
65%
20-11
100%
30-0
100%
31-0
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