Home / NBA Projections NBA / Nuggets @ Celtics DEN @ BOS

DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

24-12  |  Road

114
FINAL
Wed, Jan 7 • 7:00 PM ET
TD Garden
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

CELTICSBOS

23-12  |  Home

110
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
100%
📊
CELTICS
0%
NUGGETS --
CELTICS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
251.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Boston)
NuggetsDEN (-3.5) 0 CelticsBOS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nuggets Cover

13.6%

Celtics Cover

86.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BOS -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

DEN By 1-7 points

9.3%

DEN By 8-14 points

2.7%

BOS By 1-7 points

21.6%

BOS By 8-14 points

27.4%

AI Model Projected Score
120
DENVER
131
BOSTON
Simulated Score
112
DENVER
115
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Celtics Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Celtics Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Celtics (-9.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim Celtics (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o231.0 Loss
Proj Total: 251.0
D
Sim u231.0 Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 25, 2026 BOS @ DEN 84 - 103
Jan 7, 2026 DEN @ BOS 114 - 110
Mar 2, 2025 DEN @ BOS 103 - 110
Jan 7, 2025 BOS @ DEN 118 - 106
Oct 6, 2024 DEN @ BOS 104 - 130
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +25.3% more
Boston: 47.1 vs Denver: 37.6
Steals (L5) +21.8% more
Boston: 7.0 vs Denver: 5.8
Blocks (L5) +13.0% more
Boston: 5.4 vs Denver: 4.8
Free Throw % (L5) +3.3%
Boston: 83.6% vs Denver: 80.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEN Score 120.0 114
BOS Score 131.0 110
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.4 / 40.2 39.0 / 45.0
Assists 24.6 / 26.6 16.0 / 27.0
Blocks 5.4 / 4.8 6.0 / 8.0
Field Goal % 47.6 / 49.1 45.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 83.6 / 80.3 60.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 47.1 / 37.6 53.0 / 39.0
Steals 7.0 / 5.8 6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 9.7 / 13.6 14.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
22%TICKETS78%
55%MONEY45%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
18%MONEY82%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
56-32-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
BOS Advantage
59-30-0 (66.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
BOS Advantage
51-38-0 (57.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8% Total +/-: +3.4
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0% Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
DEN
BOS
DEN
ML
57% 61-46
54% 57-48
53% 47-41
55% 47-39
ATS
59% 61-43-3
63% 65-38-2
53% 47-41
55% 47-39
TTL
56% 60-47
54% 56-48-1
100% 88-0
100% 86-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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