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UTAH

JAZZUTAH

12-23  |  Road

125
FINAL
Wed, Jan 7 • 8:00 PM ET
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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

30-7  |  Home

129
AI Model Win Probability
JAZZ
100%
📊
THUNDER
0%
JAZZ --
THUNDER --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
233.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Oklahoma City)
JazzUTAH (-3.5) 0 ThunderOKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jazz Cover

46.0%

Thunder Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

UTAH By 1-7 points

24.3%

UTAH By 8-14 points

13.7%

OKC By 1-7 points

26.2%

OKC By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
116
UTAH
117
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
112
UTAH
115
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thunder Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Thunder (+19) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u240.0 Loss
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Sim u240.0 Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 5, 2026 UTAH @ OKC 111 - 146
Jan 7, 2026 UTAH @ OKC 125 - 129
Dec 7, 2025 OKC @ UTAH 131 - 101
Nov 21, 2025 OKC @ UTAH 144 - 112
Apr 11, 2025 OKC @ UTAH 145 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +85.0% more
Oklahoma City: 5.4 vs Utah: 2.9
Steals (L5) +19.0% more
Oklahoma City: 10.0 vs Utah: 8.4
Free Throw % (L5) +3.2%
Oklahoma City: 81.2% vs Utah: 78.0%
Turnovers (L5) +29.8% more
Utah: 15.3 vs Oklahoma City: 10.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTAH Score 116.0 125
OKC Score 117.0 129
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.7 / 37.6 18.0 / 27.0
Assists 23.3 / 30.3 26.0 / 33.0
Blocks 5.4 / 2.9 11.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 45.6 / 49.0 44.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 81.2 / 78.0 81.0 / 76.0
Rebounding 37.7 / 39.6 51.0 / 65.0
Steals 10.0 / 8.4 14.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 10.7 / 15.3 11.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
40%MONEY60%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
14%MONEY86%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTAH
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTAH Advantage
41-41-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
UTAH
49-33-0
O: 59.8% / U: 40.2% Total +/-: +5.7
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
UTAH
OKC
UTAH
ML
70% 80-34
60% 96-63
48% 46-49
48% 40-43
ATS
73% 83-30-1
68% 108-51
48% 46-49
48% 40-43
TTL
67% 76-38
75% 119-39-1
100% 95-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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