Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bulldogs @ Bears CIT @ MER

THE CITADEL

BULLDOGSCIT

3-12  |  Road

63
FINAL
Wed, Jan 7 • 7:00 PM ET
Hawkins Arena
View Odds Details →

MERCER

BEARSMER

8-7  |  Home

101
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
📊
BEARS
0%
BULLDOGS --
BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
131.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
MERCER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Mercer)
BulldogsCIT (-3.5) 0 BearsMER (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

24.2%

Bears Cover

75.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MER -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MER)

CIT By 1-7 points

15.3%

CIT By 8-14 points

5.8%

MER By 1-7 points

26.2%

MER By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
62
THE CITADEL
69
MERCER
Simulated Score
68
THE CITADEL
72
MERCER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bears Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bears Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bears (+15.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Bears (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u147.5 Loss
Proj Total: 131.0
D
Sim u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 14, 2026 MER @ CIT 70 - 54
Jan 7, 2026 CIT @ MER 63 - 101
Feb 19, 2025 MER @ CIT 62 - 52
Jan 29, 2025 CIT @ MER 46 - 80
Mar 8, 2024 CIT @ MER 76 - 84
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +62.2% more
Mercer: 4.0 vs The Citadel: 2.5
Steals (L5) +26.0% more
Mercer: 7.0 vs The Citadel: 5.5
Rebounding (L5) +9.8% more
Mercer: 35.3 vs The Citadel: 32.1
Turnovers (L5) +18.8% more
The Citadel: 13.5 vs Mercer: 11.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIT Score 62.0 63
MER Score 69.0 101
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.3 / 35.1 54.0 / 38.0
Assists 11.2 / 13.5 16.0 / 10.0
Blocks 4.0 / 2.5 3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 42.8 / 43.6 59.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 67.6 / 70.3 90.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 35.3 / 32.1 31.0 / 22.0
Steals 7.0 / 5.5 9.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 11.0 / 13.5 11.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
6%MONEY94%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
16%MONEY84%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
9%MONEY91%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIT
11-22-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -0.2
MER Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIT
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -0.2
MER Advantage
19-10-0 (65.5%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
CIT
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.9
MER
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MER
CIT
MER
CIT
ML
55% 17-14
59% 19-13
71% 22-9
62% 20-12
ATS
58% 18-13
62% 20-12
71% 22-9
64% 21-12
TTL
61% 19-12
53% 17-15
100% 31-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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