SOUTH DAKOTA
COYOTESSDAK
8-8 | Road
86
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
TOMMIESSTMN
12-4 | Home
99
AI Model Win Probability
COYOTES
100%
TOMMIES
0%
COYOTES
--
TOMMIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
162.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (St. Thomas-Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around STMN -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STMN)
SDAK By 1-7 points
2.7%
SDAK By 8-14 points
0.5%
STMN By 1-7 points
10.7%
STMN By 8-14 points
21.6%
AI Model Projected Score
South Dakota
72
SOUTH DAKOTA
St. Thomas-Minnesota
90
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
South Dakota
68
SOUTH DAKOTA
St. Thomas-Minnesota
72
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Tommies
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tommies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Tommies (-14.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim
Tommies (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u162.5
Loss
Proj Total: 162.0
D
Sim
u162.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 24, 2026
STMN @ SDAK
90 - 78
Jan 7, 2026
SDAK @ STMN
86 - 99
Feb 19, 2025
STMN @ SDAK
80 - 85
Jan 11, 2025
SDAK @ STMN
104 - 119
Feb 17, 2024
SDAK @ STMN
80 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+49.6% more
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 18.1
vs
South Dakota: 12.1
Steals (L5)
+20.1% more
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 8.5
vs
South Dakota: 7.1
Blocks (L5)
+16.7% more
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 1.9
vs
South Dakota: 1.6
Field Goal % (L5)
+6.5%
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 51.5%
vs
South Dakota: 45.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SDAK Score
72.0
86
STMN Score
90.0
99
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.9 / 36.9
45.0 / 52.0
Assists
18.1 / 12.1
28.0 / 14.0
Blocks
1.9 / 1.6
1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
51.5 / 45.0
63.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
66.4 / 75.9
76.0 / 94.0
Rebounding
33.4 / 33.7
26.0 / 31.0
Steals
8.5 / 7.1
10.0 / 2.0
Turnovers
7.8 / 13.1
9.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SDAK
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-: +0.7
STMN
Advantage
24-10-0
(70.6%)
Margin: 10.2
ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SDAK
Advantage
16-13-0
(55.2%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-: +0.7
STMN
15-16-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 10.2
ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
SDAK
12-17-0
O: 41.4% / U: 58.6%
Total +/-: -1.1
STMN
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STMN
SDAK
STMN
SDAK
ML
64%
21-12
70%
21-9
64%
21-12
63%
19-11
ATS
70%
23-10
70%
21-9
64%
21-12
63%
19-11
TTL
61%
20-13
67%
20-10
100%
33-0
100%
30-0
Contextual Game News
