TROY
TROJANSTROY
10-5 | Road
74
ARKANSAS STATE
RED WOLVESARST
10-5 | Home
86
AI Model Win Probability
TROJANS
0%
RED WOLVES
100%
TROJANS
--
RED WOLVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
169.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
TROY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Troy)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TROY -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TROY)
TROY By 1-7 points
27.2%
TROY By 8-14 points
23.0%
ARST By 1-7 points
18.6%
ARST By 8-14 points
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Troy
87
TROY
Arkansas State
82
ARKANSAS STATE
Simulated Score
Troy
73
TROY
Arkansas State
77
ARKANSAS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Trojans
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Wolves
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Trojans (-3.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim
Red Wolves (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o160.5
Loss
Proj Total: 169.0
D
Sim
u160.5
Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 17, 2026
ARST @ TROY
74 - 99
Jan 7, 2026
TROY @ ARST
74 - 86
Mar 10, 2025
ARST @ TROY
81 - 94
Feb 15, 2025
TROY @ ARST
71 - 70
Jan 11, 2025
ARST @ TROY
84 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+40.0% more
Troy: 4.4
vs
Arkansas State: 2.6
Assists (L5)
+17.9% more
Troy: 16.7
vs
Arkansas State: 13.7
Steals (L5)
+15.6% more
Troy: 9.1
vs
Arkansas State: 7.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+7.0%
Troy: 39.7%
vs
Arkansas State: 32.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TROY Score
87.0
74
ARST Score
82.0
86
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.7 / 39.7
40.0 / 32.0
Assists
13.7 / 16.7
14.0 / 15.0
Blocks
2.6 / 4.4
3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
44.3 / 43.9
45.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
72.1 / 66.6
76.0 / 61.0
Rebounding
40.4 / 39.3
44.0 / 30.0
Steals
7.6 / 9.1
8.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
11.3 / 10.7
16.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TROY
Advantage
22-12-0
(64.7%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: -1.0
ARST
20-12-0
(62.5%)
Margin: 5.8
ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TROY
Advantage
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: -1.0
ARST
15-15-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 5.8
ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
TROY
14-16-2
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3%
Total +/-: +2.8
ARST
15-14-1
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3%
Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARST
TROY
ARST
TROY
ML
48%
15-16
59%
20-14
53%
16-14
61%
20-13
ATS
58%
18-13
65%
22-12
53%
16-14
61%
20-13
TTL
61%
19-12
56%
19-15
100%
30-0
100%
33-0
