Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Catamounts @ Bulldogs WCU @ SAM

WESTERN CAROLINA

CATAMOUNTSWCU

5-8  |  Road

77
FINAL
Wed, Jan 7 • 7:00 PM ET
Pete Hanna Center
View Odds Details →

SAMFORD

BULLDOGSSAM

8-7  |  Home

82
AI Model Win Probability
CATAMOUNTS
100%
📊
BULLDOGS
0%
CATAMOUNTS --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
115.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-31.0
SAMFORD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +31.0 points (Samford)
CatamountsWCU (-3.5) 0 BulldogsSAM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Catamounts Cover

0.1%

Bulldogs Cover

99.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SAM -31.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAM)

WCU By 1-7 points

0.1%

WCU By 8-14 points

0.0%

SAM By 1-7 points

0.8%

SAM By 8-14 points

4.0%

AI Model Projected Score
42
WESTERN CAROLINA
73
SAMFORD
Simulated Score
73
WESTERN CAROLINA
78
SAMFORD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs (-7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -31.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u154.5 Loss
Proj Total: 115.0
D
Sim u154.5 Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 1, 2026 SAM @ WCU 88 - 74
Jan 7, 2026 WCU @ SAM 77 - 82
Feb 22, 2025 WCU @ SAM 72 - 93
Jan 4, 2025 SAM @ WCU 88 - 69
Feb 14, 2024 WCU @ SAM 62 - 88
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +74.9% more
Samford: 4.4 vs Western Carolina: 2.5
Assists (L5) +47.9% more
Samford: 19.2 vs Western Carolina: 13.0
Field Goal % (L5) +3.7%
Samford: 47.1% vs Western Carolina: 43.4%
Steals (L5) +43.7% more
Western Carolina: 7.0 vs Samford: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WCU Score 42.0 77
SAM Score 73.0 82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.1 / 37.3 44.0 / 33.0
Assists 19.2 / 13.0 14.0 / 12.0
Blocks 4.4 / 2.5 3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 47.1 / 43.4 45.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 59.0 / 64.4 90.0 / 88.0
Rebounding 41.6 / 41.6 30.0 / 38.0
Steals 4.0 / 7.0 4.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 8.2 / 13.2 7.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
78%MONEY22%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
94%MONEY6%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WCU
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: +1.8
SAM Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WCU
14-15-0 (48.3%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: +1.8
SAM Advantage
17-12-1 (58.6%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
WCU
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3% Total +/-: +2.5
SAM
18-11-1
O: 62.1% / U: 37.9% Total +/-: +2.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAM
WCU
SAM
WCU
ML
65% 20-11
63% 19-11
68% 21-10
76% 22-7
ATS
68% 21-10
73% 22-8
68% 21-10
77% 23-7
TTL
35% 11-20
67% 20-10
100% 31-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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