DUQUESNE
DUKESDUQ
9-6 | Road
90
SAINT JOSEPH'S
HAWKSJOES
8-7 | Home
97
AI Model Win Probability
DUKES
100%
HAWKS
0%
DUKES
--
HAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
127.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.0
SAINT JOSEPH'S
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (Saint Joseph's)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around JOES -19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JOES)
DUQ By 1-7 points
2.2%
DUQ By 8-14 points
0.4%
JOES By 1-7 points
9.3%
JOES By 8-14 points
20.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Duquesne
54
DUQUESNE
Saint Joseph's
73
SAINT JOSEPH'S
Simulated Score
Duquesne
71
DUQUESNE
Saint Joseph's
76
SAINT JOSEPH'S
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Hawks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hawks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Hawks (+2.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Sim
Hawks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u149.5
Loss
Proj Total: 127.0
D
Sim
u149.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 7, 2026
DUQ @ JOES
90 - 97
Jan 29, 2025
DUQ @ JOES
72 - 76
Jan 8, 2025
JOES @ DUQ
81 - 85
Feb 17, 2024
JOES @ DUQ
56 - 66
Jan 20, 2024
DUQ @ JOES
69 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+20.1% more
Saint Joseph's: 3.6
vs
Duquesne: 3.0
Free Throw % (L5)
+1.7%
Saint Joseph's: 73.4%
vs
Duquesne: 71.8%
Assists (L5)
+36.2% more
Duquesne: 18.1
vs
Saint Joseph's: 11.6
Steals (L5)
+33.4% more
Duquesne: 7.4
vs
Saint Joseph's: 4.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DUQ Score
54.0
90
JOES Score
73.0
97
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
23.4 / 38.3
31.0 / 26.0
Assists
11.6 / 18.1
17.0 / 13.0
Blocks
3.6 / 3.0
5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
39.3 / 49.4
49.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
73.4 / 71.8
76.0 / 87.0
Rebounding
33.9 / 38.9
37.0 / 37.0
Steals
4.9 / 7.4
10.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
10.5 / 12.6
11.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DUQ
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 3.1
ATS +/-: -0.3
JOES
Advantage
24-12-0
(66.7%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DUQ
14-16-1
(46.7%)
Margin: 3.1
ATS +/-: -0.3
JOES
Advantage
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
DUQ
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +1.6
JOES
11-23-0
O: 32.4% / U: 67.7%
Total +/-: -3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JOES
DUQ
JOES
DUQ
ML
51%
18-17
53%
17-15
61%
20-13
58%
18-13
ATS
60%
21-14
69%
22-10
61%
20-13
58%
18-13
TTL
54%
19-16
50%
16-16
100%
33-0
100%
31-0
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