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MURRAY STATE

RACERSMUR

13-3  |  Road

79
FINAL
Wed, Jan 7 • 8:00 PM ET
Ford Center
View Odds Details →

EVANSVILLE

PURPLE ACESEVAN

4-12  |  Home

69
AI Model Win Probability
RACERS
0%
📊
PURPLE ACES
100%
RACERS --
PURPLE ACES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+5.0
EVANSVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
RacersMUR (-3.5) 0 Purple AcesEVAN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Racers Cover

30.9%

Purple Aces Cover

69.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around EVAN +5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (EVAN)

MUR By 1-7 points

27.2%

MUR By 8-14 points

23.0%

EVAN By 1-7 points

18.6%

EVAN By 8-14 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
78
MURRAY STATE
73
EVANSVILLE
Simulated Score
68
MURRAY STATE
72
EVANSVILLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Racers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Purple Aces Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Purple Aces (+8.5) Win
Proj Spread: +5.0
D
Sim Purple Aces (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u151.5 Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim u151.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 21, 2026 EVAN @ MUR 75 - 88
Jan 7, 2026 MUR @ EVAN 79 - 69
Mar 6, 2025 EVAN @ MUR 53 - 74
Jan 29, 2025 MUR @ EVAN 74 - 78
Dec 3, 2024 EVAN @ MUR 61 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +35.8% more
Murray State: 5.1 vs Evansville: 3.3
Assists (L5) +28.2% more
Murray State: 15.4 vs Evansville: 11.1
Rebounding (L5) +18.1% more
Murray State: 39.7 vs Evansville: 32.5
Free Throw % (L5) +14.5%
Murray State: 84.7% vs Evansville: 70.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MUR Score 78.0 79
EVAN Score 73.0 69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 24.0 / 38.3 8.0 / 28.0
Assists 11.1 / 15.4 15.0 / 13.0
Blocks 3.3 / 5.1 4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 38.8 / 47.7 51.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 70.2 / 84.7 74.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 32.5 / 39.7 32.0 / 36.0
Steals 5.9 / 4.4 5.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 15.6 / 12.5 15.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
97%TICKETS3%
91%MONEY9%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
72%MONEY28%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
23%MONEY77%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MUR Advantage
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
EVAN
7-25-0 (21.9%)
Margin: -9.5 ATS +/-: -3.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MUR
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
EVAN Advantage
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -9.5 ATS +/-: -3.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MUR
19-14-0
O: 57.6% / U: 42.4% Total +/-: +4.8
EVAN
16-13-1
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
EVAN
MUR
EVAN
MUR
ML
56% 18-14
58% 19-14
62% 20-12
61% 20-13
ATS
66% 21-11
52% 17-16
62% 20-12
61% 20-13
TTL
62% 20-12
70% 23-10
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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