PURDUE FORT WAYNE
MASTODONSPFW
9-8 | Road
71
YOUNGSTOWN STATE
PENGUINSYSU
8-8 | Home
69
AI Model Win Probability
MASTODONS
100%
PENGUINS
0%
MASTODONS
--
PENGUINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
142.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
YOUNGSTOWN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Youngstown State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around YSU -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (YSU)
PFW By 1-7 points
8.0%
PFW By 8-14 points
2.2%
YSU By 1-7 points
20.1%
YSU By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Purdue Fort Wayne
65
PURDUE FORT WAYNE
Youngstown State
77
YOUNGSTOWN STATE
Simulated Score
Purdue Fort Wayne
72
PURDUE FORT WAYNE
Youngstown State
78
YOUNGSTOWN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Penguins
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Penguins
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Penguins (-4.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim
Penguins (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u145.5
Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Sim
u145.5
Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 4, 2026
YSU @ PFW
90 - 61
Jan 7, 2026
PFW @ YSU
71 - 69
Mar 6, 2025
PFW @ YSU
67 - 72
Feb 12, 2025
PFW @ YSU
71 - 93
Jan 4, 2025
YSU @ PFW
81 - 90
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+35.8% more
Youngstown State: 35.4
vs
Purdue Fort Wayne: 26.0
Turnovers (L5)
+17.7% more
Youngstown State: 10.5
vs
Purdue Fort Wayne: 8.9
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.1%
Youngstown State: 42.7%
vs
Purdue Fort Wayne: 40.7%
Free Throw % (L5)
+1.7%
Youngstown State: 66.9%
vs
Purdue Fort Wayne: 65.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PFW Score
65.0
71
YSU Score
77.0
69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.1 / 30.8
30.0 / 42.0
Assists
14.1 / 13.7
12.0 / 14.0
Blocks
3.0 / 2.9
3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
42.7 / 40.7
42.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
66.9 / 65.1
79.0 / 77.0
Rebounding
35.4 / 26.0
41.0 / 31.0
Steals
7.1 / 7.2
7.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
10.5 / 8.9
16.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PFW
Advantage
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: -3.0
YSU
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 4.9
ATS +/-: -1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PFW
Advantage
12-17-0
(41.4%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: -3.0
YSU
10-18-1
(35.7%)
Margin: 4.9
ATS +/-: -1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
PFW
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: -0.7
YSU
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
YSU
PFW
YSU
PFW
ML
57%
17-13
59%
19-13
67%
20-10
74%
23-8
ATS
47%
14-16
62%
20-12
67%
20-10
74%
23-8
TTL
60%
18-12
59%
19-13
100%
30-0
100%
31-0