VMI
KEYDETSVMI
6-9 | Road
67
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
BUCCANEERSETSU
10-5 | Home
81
AI Model Win Probability
KEYDETS
100%
BUCCANEERS
0%
KEYDETS
--
BUCCANEERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
130.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (East Tennessee State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ETSU -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ETSU)
VMI By 1-7 points
8.0%
VMI By 8-14 points
2.2%
ETSU By 1-7 points
20.1%
ETSU By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
VMI
59
VMI
East Tennessee State
71
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
Simulated Score
VMI
65
VMI
East Tennessee State
78
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Buccaneers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Buccaneers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Buccaneers (+17.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim
Buccaneers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u146.5
Loss
Proj Total: 130.0
D
Sim
u146.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 7, 2026
ETSU @ VMI
87 - 70
Jan 7, 2026
VMI @ ETSU
67 - 81
Feb 5, 2025
ETSU @ VMI
62 - 55
Jan 1, 2025
VMI @ ETSU
69 - 84
Mar 8, 2024
VMI @ ETSU
66 - 98
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+68.6% more
East Tennessee State: 4.3
vs
VMI: 2.6
Steals (L5)
+35.9% more
East Tennessee State: 8.6
vs
VMI: 6.3
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.7%
East Tennessee State: 80.0%
vs
VMI: 74.2%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.8%
East Tennessee State: 36.2%
vs
VMI: 31.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
VMI Score
59.0
67
ETSU Score
71.0
81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.2 / 31.4
40.0 / 23.0
Assists
11.2 / 13.5
17.0 / 8.0
Blocks
4.3 / 2.6
3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
46.3 / 41.8
56.0 / 37.0
Free Throw %
80.0 / 74.2
79.0 / 63.0
Rebounding
33.8 / 36.6
34.0 / 30.0
Steals
8.6 / 6.3
4.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
11.2 / 11.1
10.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VMI
6-26-0
(18.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -5.4
ETSU
Advantage
23-11-0
(67.7%)
Margin: 8.3
ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VMI
9-20-0
(31.0%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -5.4
ETSU
Advantage
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 8.3
ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
VMI
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: -0.1
ETSU
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9%
Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ETSU
VMI
ETSU
VMI
ML
42%
14-19
53%
17-15
70%
23-10
84%
27-5
ATS
58%
19-14
50%
16-16
70%
23-10
84%
27-5
TTL
45%
15-18
62%
20-12
100%
33-0
100%
32-0
