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ILLINOIS STATE

REDBIRDSILST

12-3  |  Road

71
FINAL
Wed, Jan 7 • 8:00 PM ET
Athletics-Recreation Center
View Odds Details →

VALPARAISO

BEACONSVAL

7-8  |  Home

77
AI Model Win Probability
REDBIRDS
0%
📊
BEACONS
100%
REDBIRDS --
BEACONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
126.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
ILLINOIS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Illinois State)
RedbirdsILST (-3.5) 0 BeaconsVAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Redbirds Cover

84.1%

Beacons Cover

15.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ILST -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ILST)

ILST By 1-7 points

23.0%

ILST By 8-14 points

27.2%

VAL By 1-7 points

10.7%

VAL By 8-14 points

3.3%

AI Model Projected Score
68
ILLINOIS STATE
58
VALPARAISO
Simulated Score
70
ILLINOIS STATE
73
VALPARAISO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Redbirds Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Beacons Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Redbirds (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Beacons (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u138.5 Loss
Proj Total: 126.0
D
Sim u138.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 12, 2026 VAL @ ILST 64 - 86
Jan 7, 2026 ILST @ VAL 71 - 77
Feb 1, 2025 VAL @ ILST 78 - 86
Mar 3, 2024 ILST @ VAL 72 - 75
Jan 14, 2024 VAL @ ILST 59 - 50
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +42.0% more
Illinois State: 7.5 vs Valparaiso: 4.3
Assists (L5) +33.0% more
Illinois State: 14.5 vs Valparaiso: 9.7
Turnovers (L5) +16.1% more
Illinois State: 12.5 vs Valparaiso: 10.5
Field Goal % (L5) +15.6%
Illinois State: 52.7% vs Valparaiso: 37.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ILST Score 68.0 71
VAL Score 58.0 77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.2 / 38.3 75.0 / 31.0
Assists 9.7 / 14.5 12.0 / 8.0
Blocks 3.7 / 1.7 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 37.1 / 52.7 51.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 76.4 / 65.5 74.0 / 61.0
Rebounding 35.9 / 35.2 28.0 / 36.0
Steals 4.3 / 7.5 6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 10.5 / 12.5 11.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
96%TICKETS4%
95%MONEY5%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
64%MONEY36%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ILST Advantage
23-13-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 6.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
VAL
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +2.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ILST
20-15-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 6.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
VAL Advantage
18-13-1 (58.1%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +2.7
⚖️ Over/Under
ILST
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -3.3
VAL
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VAL
ILST
VAL
ILST
ML
48% 16-17
42% 15-21
61% 20-13
71% 24-10
ATS
52% 17-16
58% 21-15
61% 20-13
71% 24-10
TTL
61% 20-13
58% 21-15
100% 33-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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