OKLAHOMA
SOONERSOU
11-3 | Road
53
MISSISSIPPI STATE
BULLDOGSMSST
9-5 | Home
72
AI Model Win Probability
SOONERS
100%
BULLDOGS
0%
SOONERS
--
BULLDOGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
175.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Mississippi State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MSST -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSST)
OU By 1-7 points
4.8%
OU By 8-14 points
1.1%
MSST By 1-7 points
15.3%
MSST By 8-14 points
25.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Oklahoma
80
OKLAHOMA
Mississippi State
95
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Simulated Score
Oklahoma
72
OKLAHOMA
Mississippi State
75
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bulldogs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bulldogs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bulldogs (-1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim
Bulldogs (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o158.5
Loss
Proj Total: 175.0
D
Sim
u158.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 7, 2026
OU @ MSST
53 - 72
Feb 22, 2025
MSST @ OU
87 - 93
Jan 25, 2020
MSST @ OU
62 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+36.4% more
Mississippi State: 11.0
vs
Oklahoma: 8.1
Rebounding (L5)
+10.8% more
Mississippi State: 43.2
vs
Oklahoma: 39.0
Assists (L5)
+24.2% more
Oklahoma: 17.6
vs
Mississippi State: 13.4
Field Goal % (L5)
+6.2%
Oklahoma: 53.4%
vs
Mississippi State: 47.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
OU Score
80.0
53
MSST Score
95.0
72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.7 / 39.8
13.0 / 15.0
Assists
13.4 / 17.6
7.0 / 4.0
Blocks
4.7 / 4.3
6.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
47.2 / 53.4
42.0 / 31.0
Free Throw %
69.8 / 69.8
71.0 / 64.0
Rebounding
43.2 / 39.0
46.0 / 35.0
Steals
6.4 / 6.9
8.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
11.0 / 8.1
9.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OU
Advantage
21-16-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 5.5
ATS +/-: +0.9
MSST
13-19-0
(40.6%)
Margin: -4.2
ATS +/-: -4.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OU
Advantage
17-19-1
(47.2%)
Margin: 5.5
ATS +/-: +0.9
MSST
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -4.2
ATS +/-: -4.4
⚖️ Over/Under
OU
19-18-0
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +1.8
MSST
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +3.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSST
OU
MSST
OU
ML
66%
21-11
78%
28-8
55%
17-14
59%
20-14
ATS
56%
18-14
72%
26-10
55%
17-14
59%
20-14
TTL
59%
19-13
75%
27-9
100%
31-0
100%
34-0
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