Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Thundering Herd @ Dukes MRSH @ JMU

MARSHALL

THUNDERING HERDMRSH

10-5  |  Road

66
FINAL
Wed, Jan 7 • 7:00 PM ET
Atlantic Union Bank Center
View Odds Details →

JAMES MADISON

DUKESJMU

8-7  |  Home

64
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDERING HERD
100%
📊
DUKES
0%
THUNDERING HERD --
DUKES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
169.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
JAMES MADISON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (James Madison)
Thundering HerdMRSH (-3.5) 0 DukesJMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thundering Herd Cover

46.0%

Dukes Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around JMU -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JMU)

MRSH By 1-7 points

24.3%

MRSH By 8-14 points

13.7%

JMU By 1-7 points

26.2%

JMU By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
84
MARSHALL
85
JAMES MADISON
Simulated Score
73
MARSHALL
78
JAMES MADISON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Dukes Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Dukes Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Dukes (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Dukes (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o152.5 Loss
Proj Total: 169.0
D
Sim u152.5 Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 17, 2026 JMU @ MRSH 72 - 77
Jan 7, 2026 MRSH @ JMU 66 - 64
Jan 16, 2025 MRSH @ JMU 64 - 67
Jan 9, 2025 JMU @ MRSH 78 - 80
Mar 9, 2024 MRSH @ JMU 64 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +15.3% more
James Madison: 13.1 vs Marshall: 11.4
Assists (L5) +32.4% more
Marshall: 16.9 vs James Madison: 11.4
Blocks (L5) +9.2% more
Marshall: 5.0 vs James Madison: 4.6
Free Throw % (L5) +2.2%
Marshall: 70.9% vs James Madison: 68.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MRSH Score 84.0 66
JMU Score 85.0 64
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.9 / 38.6 26.0 / 31.0
Assists 11.4 / 16.9 12.0 / 13.0
Blocks 4.6 / 5.0 3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 46.6 / 47.3 42.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 68.7 / 70.9 62.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 36.7 / 36.7 40.0 / 38.0
Steals 5.3 / 5.5 3.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 13.1 / 11.4 11.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
20%MONEY80%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
39%MONEY61%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MRSH Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.8
JMU
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MRSH
10-20-1 (33.3%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.8
JMU Advantage
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
MRSH
19-11-1
O: 63.3% / U: 36.7% Total +/-: +4.1
JMU
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JMU
MRSH
JMU
MRSH
ML
64% 21-12
70% 21-9
66% 21-11
62% 18-11
ATS
67% 22-11
70% 21-9
66% 21-11
62% 18-11
TTL
67% 22-11
50% 15-15
100% 32-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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