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KANSAS STATE

WILDCATSKSU

9-5  |  Road

76
FINAL
Wed, Jan 7 • 9:00 PM ET
McKale Memorial Center
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

WILDCATSARIZ

14-0  |  Home

101
AI Model Win Probability
WILDCATS
100%
📊
WILDCATS
0%
WILDCATS --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
184.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Arizona)
WildcatsKSU (-3.5) 0 WildcatsARIZ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wildcats Cover

15.9%

Wildcats Cover

84.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ARIZ -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARIZ)

KSU By 1-7 points

10.7%

KSU By 8-14 points

3.3%

ARIZ By 1-7 points

23.0%

ARIZ By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
87
KANSAS STATE
97
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
72
KANSAS STATE
78
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wildcats Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wildcats Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wildcats (+17.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Wildcats (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o172.5 Win
Proj Total: 184.0
D
Sim u172.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 7, 2026 KSU @ ARIZ 76 - 101
Feb 11, 2025 ARIZ @ KSU 70 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +44.3% more
Arizona: 5.5 vs Kansas State: 3.8
Rebounding (L5) +11.2% more
Arizona: 44.2 vs Kansas State: 39.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.2%
Arizona: 39.3% vs Kansas State: 30.2%
Field Goal % (L5) +6.0%
Arizona: 53.2% vs Kansas State: 47.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KSU Score 87.0 76
ARIZ Score 97.0 101
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.3 / 30.2 19.0 / 22.0
Assists 20.0 / 19.3 17.0 / 14.0
Blocks 5.5 / 3.8 8.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 53.2 / 47.2 49.0 / 34.0
Free Throw % 74.4 / 74.8 77.0 / 84.0
Rebounding 44.2 / 39.8 55.0 / 32.0
Steals 9.9 / 9.3 8.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 11.9 / 12.0 8.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
22%TICKETS78%
19%MONEY81%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -2.9
ARIZ Advantage
36-3-0 (92.3%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -2.9
ARIZ Advantage
23-15-1 (60.5%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
KSU
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +0.1
ARIZ
20-19-0
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARIZ
KSU
ARIZ
KSU
ML
67% 26-13
59% 19-13
68% 23-11
69% 22-10
ATS
74% 29-10
62% 20-12
68% 23-11
69% 22-10
TTL
56% 22-17
47% 15-17
100% 34-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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