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IOWA STATE

CYCLONESISU

14-0  |  Road

70
FINAL
Wed, Jan 7 • 8:00 PM ET
Foster Pavilion
View Odds Details →

BAYLOR

BEARSBAY

10-3  |  Home

60
AI Model Win Probability
CYCLONES
100%
📊
BEARS
0%
CYCLONES --
BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
155.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-33.0
BAYLOR
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +33.0 points (Baylor)
CyclonesISU (-3.5) 0 BearsBAY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cyclones Cover

0.0%

Bears Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BAY -33.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAY)

ISU By 1-7 points

0.0%

ISU By 8-14 points

0.0%

BAY By 1-7 points

0.5%

BAY By 8-14 points

2.7%

AI Model Projected Score
61
IOWA STATE
94
BAYLOR
Simulated Score
72
IOWA STATE
75
BAYLOR
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bears Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bears Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bears (+4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -33.0
D
Sim Bears (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u155.5 Win
Proj Total: 155.0
D
Sim u155.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 7, 2026 BAY @ ISU 69 - 72
Jan 7, 2026 ISU @ BAY 70 - 60
Jan 4, 2025 BAY @ ISU 55 - 74
Mar 15, 2024 BAY @ ISU 62 - 76
Feb 3, 2024 ISU @ BAY 68 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +68.0% more
Baylor: 7.1 vs Iowa State: 4.3
Steals (L5) +15.2% more
Baylor: 8.3 vs Iowa State: 7.2
Free Throw % (L5) +13.7%
Baylor: 77.3% vs Iowa State: 63.6%
Rebounding (L5) +12.0% more
Baylor: 42.7 vs Iowa State: 38.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ISU Score 61.0 70
BAY Score 94.0 60
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.1 / 42.5 19.0 / 32.0
Assists 21.7 / 21.8 8.0 / 12.0
Blocks 7.1 / 4.3 7.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 52.8 / 51.9 31.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 77.3 / 63.6 59.0 / 60.0
Rebounding 42.7 / 38.1 47.0 / 44.0
Steals 8.3 / 7.2 5.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 11.1 / 10.7 14.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
91%TICKETS9%
80%MONEY20%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
57%MONEY43%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
57%MONEY43%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ISU Advantage
29-8-0 (78.4%)
Margin: 16.4 ATS +/-: +2.3
BAY
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ISU Advantage
22-14-1 (61.1%)
Margin: 16.4 ATS +/-: +2.3
BAY
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
ISU
16-21-0
O: 43.2% / U: 56.8% Total +/-: -1.4
BAY
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAY
ISU
BAY
ISU
ML
58% 19-14
57% 21-16
53% 17-15
76% 26-8
ATS
58% 19-14
62% 23-14
53% 17-15
76% 26-8
TTL
45% 15-18
54% 20-17
100% 32-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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