Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bulls @ Mean Green USF @ UNT

SOUTH FLORIDA

BULLSUSF

8-6  |  Road

74
FINAL
Wed, Jan 7 • 8:00 PM ET
The Super Pit
View Odds Details →

NORTH TEXAS

MEAN GREENUNT

10-5  |  Home

70
AI Model Win Probability
BULLS
100%
📊
MEAN GREEN
0%
BULLS --
MEAN GREEN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
179.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
NORTH TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (North Texas)
BullsUSF (-3.5) 0 Mean GreenUNT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulls Cover

38.2%

Mean Green Cover

61.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNT -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNT)

USF By 1-7 points

21.6%

USF By 8-14 points

10.7%

UNT By 1-7 points

27.2%

UNT By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
88
SOUTH FLORIDA
91
NORTH TEXAS
Simulated Score
68
SOUTH FLORIDA
72
NORTH TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mean Green Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mean Green Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mean Green (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Mean Green (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o147.5 Loss
Proj Total: 179.0
D
Sim u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 7, 2026 USF @ UNT 74 - 70
Feb 23, 2025 UNT @ USF 64 - 57
Feb 3, 2024 USF @ UNT 60 - 55
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +35.4% more
North Texas: 10.5 vs South Florida: 7.7
Blocks (L5) +27.4% more
North Texas: 6.2 vs South Florida: 4.9
Rebounding (L5) +37.6% more
South Florida: 48.0 vs North Texas: 30.0
Assists (L5) +30.5% more
South Florida: 19.2 vs North Texas: 13.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USF Score 88.0 74
UNT Score 91.0 70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.3 / 35.0 44.0 / 26.0
Assists 13.4 / 19.2 12.0 / 13.0
Blocks 6.2 / 4.9 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 45.2 / 43.8 46.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 69.3 / 70.3 45.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 30.0 / 48.0 33.0 / 39.0
Steals 10.5 / 7.7 10.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 12.3 / 12.0 13.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
85%MONEY15%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
70%MONEY30%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
36%MONEY64%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USF Advantage
25-9-0 (73.5%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +1.9
UNT
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 3.5 ATS +/-: -0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USF
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +1.9
UNT Advantage
17-14-0 (54.8%)
Margin: 3.5 ATS +/-: -0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
USF
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +1.0
UNT
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: -0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNT
USF
UNT
USF
ML
70% 23-10
61% 20-13
59% 19-13
52% 16-15
ATS
52% 17-16
61% 20-13
59% 19-13
52% 16-15
TTL
67% 22-11
52% 17-16
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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