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XAVIER

MUSKETEERSXAV

9-6  |  Road

65
FINAL
Wed, Jan 7 • 7:00 PM ET
Fiserv Forum
View Odds Details →

MARQUETTE

GOLDEN EAGLESMARQ

5-10  |  Home

66
AI Model Win Probability
MUSKETEERS
100%
📊
GOLDEN EAGLES
0%
MUSKETEERS --
GOLDEN EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
123.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MARQUETTE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Marquette)
MusketeersXAV (-3.5) 0 Golden EaglesMARQ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Musketeers Cover

46.0%

Golden Eagles Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MARQ -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MARQ)

XAV By 1-7 points

24.3%

XAV By 8-14 points

13.7%

MARQ By 1-7 points

26.2%

MARQ By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
61
XAVIER
62
MARQUETTE
Simulated Score
73
XAVIER
78
MARQUETTE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Golden Eagles Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Golden Eagles Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Golden Eagles (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Golden Eagles (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u158.5 Win
Proj Total: 123.0
D
Sim u158.5 Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 11, 2026 XAV @ MARQ 89 - 87
Feb 14, 2026 MARQ @ XAV 88 - 96
Jan 7, 2026 XAV @ MARQ 65 - 66
Mar 13, 2025 MARQ @ XAV 89 - 87
Jan 18, 2025 XAV @ MARQ 59 - 57
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +23.0% more
Marquette: 8.2 vs Xavier: 6.7
Assists (L5) +32.0% more
Xavier: 18.8 vs Marquette: 12.8
Blocks (L5) +8.9% more
Xavier: 3.7 vs Marquette: 3.4
Field Goal % (L5) +6.8%
Xavier: 42.5% vs Marquette: 35.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
XAV Score 61.0 65
MARQ Score 62.0 66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 27.0 / 30.2 23.0 / 46.0
Assists 12.8 / 18.8 16.0 / 11.0
Blocks 3.4 / 3.7 3.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 35.7 / 42.5 40.0 / 37.0
Free Throw % 64.8 / 67.9 50.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 34.8 / 34.1 47.0 / 34.0
Steals 8.2 / 6.7 13.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 10.1 / 9.9 15.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
45%MONEY55%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
62%MONEY38%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
23%MONEY77%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
XAV Advantage
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -1.2
MARQ
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
XAV Advantage
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -1.2
MARQ
12-19-1 (38.7%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
XAV
25-8-0
O: 75.8% / U: 24.2% Total +/-: +6.0
MARQ
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1% Total +/-: -1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MARQ
XAV
MARQ
XAV
ML
59% 19-13
58% 19-14
62% 20-12
72% 23-9
ATS
53% 17-15
73% 24-9
62% 20-12
72% 23-9
TTL
50% 16-16
39% 13-20
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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