CREIGHTON
BLUEJAYSCREI
9-6 | Road
76
VILLANOVA
WILDCATSVILL
12-2 | Home
72
AI Model Win Probability
BLUEJAYS
100%
WILDCATS
0%
BLUEJAYS
--
WILDCATS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
191.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
VILLANOVA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Villanova)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around VILL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VILL)
CREI By 1-7 points
24.3%
CREI By 8-14 points
13.7%
VILL By 1-7 points
26.2%
VILL By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Creighton
95
CREIGHTON
Villanova
96
VILLANOVA
Simulated Score
Creighton
71
CREIGHTON
Villanova
75
VILLANOVA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Wildcats
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Wildcats
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Wildcats (+5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Wildcats (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o142.5
Win
Proj Total: 191.0
D
Sim
u142.5
Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 14, 2026
VILL @ CREI
80 - 69
Jan 7, 2026
CREI @ VILL
76 - 72
Feb 1, 2025
CREI @ VILL
62 - 60
Dec 21, 2024
VILL @ CREI
79 - 86
Mar 9, 2024
CREI @ VILL
69 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+36.1% more
Villanova: 3.6
vs
Creighton: 2.6
Steals (L5)
+32.7% more
Villanova: 8.5
vs
Creighton: 6.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.1%
Villanova: 37.7%
vs
Creighton: 33.6%
Field Goal % (L5)
+1.8%
Villanova: 46.4%
vs
Creighton: 44.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CREI Score
95.0
76
VILL Score
96.0
72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.7 / 33.6
25.0 / 30.0
Assists
12.7 / 16.6
14.0 / 10.0
Blocks
3.6 / 2.6
2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
46.4 / 44.7
44.0 / 50.0
Free Throw %
68.3 / 75.0
73.0 / 69.0
Rebounding
34.8 / 38.2
30.0 / 39.0
Steals
8.5 / 6.4
4.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
10.6 / 11.3
6.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CREI
16-18-0
(47.1%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-: -2.9
VILL
Advantage
24-9-0
(72.7%)
Margin: 5.9
ATS +/-: +1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CREI
11-22-1
(33.3%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-: -2.9
VILL
Advantage
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 5.9
ATS +/-: +1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
CREI
16-18-0
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: +0.1
VILL
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4%
Total +/-: +1.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VILL
CREI
VILL
CREI
ML
44%
14-18
52%
17-16
72%
23-9
70%
21-9
ATS
56%
18-14
58%
19-14
72%
23-9
70%
21-9
TTL
41%
13-19
52%
17-16
100%
32-0
100%
30-0
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