GRAND CANYON
LOPESGCU
8-5 | Road
75
BOISE STATE
BRONCOSBOIS
9-5 | Home
58
AI Model Win Probability
LOPES
100%
BRONCOS
0%
LOPES
--
BRONCOS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
177.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
BOISE STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Boise State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BOIS -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOIS)
GCU By 1-7 points
12.2%
GCU By 8-14 points
4.0%
BOIS By 1-7 points
24.3%
BOIS By 8-14 points
26.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Grand Canyon
84
GRAND CANYON
Boise State
93
BOISE STATE
Simulated Score
Grand Canyon
68
GRAND CANYON
Boise State
72
BOISE STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Broncos
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Broncos
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Broncos (-8.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim
Broncos (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o141.5
Loss
Proj Total: 177.0
D
Sim
u141.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 30, 2026
BOIS @ GCU
69 - 86
Jan 7, 2026
GCU @ BOIS
75 - 58
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+20.0% more
Boise State: 41.2
vs
Grand Canyon: 34.4
Assists (L5)
+10.2% more
Boise State: 13.3
vs
Grand Canyon: 12.1
Turnovers (L5)
+10.2% more
Boise State: 13.1
vs
Grand Canyon: 11.9
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.9%
Boise State: 76.7%
vs
Grand Canyon: 72.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
GCU Score
84.0
75
BOIS Score
93.0
58
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.3 / 32.4
21.0 / 29.0
Assists
13.3 / 12.1
6.0 / 11.0
Blocks
2.4 / 2.4
2.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
42.2 / 45.0
35.0 / 50.0
Free Throw %
76.7 / 72.8
80.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
41.2 / 34.4
28.0 / 38.0
Steals
5.5 / 6.6
4.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
13.1 / 11.9
14.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GCU
20-12-0
(62.5%)
Margin: 7.0
ATS +/-: +0.8
BOIS
20-12-0
(62.5%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GCU
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 7.0
ATS +/-: +0.8
BOIS
Advantage
17-13-0
(56.7%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
GCU
13-18-1
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1%
Total +/-: -3.4
BOIS
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3%
Total +/-: +3.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOIS
GCU
BOIS
GCU
ML
50%
16-16
66%
21-11
61%
19-12
68%
21-10
ATS
50%
16-16
72%
23-9
61%
19-12
68%
21-10
TTL
56%
18-14
44%
14-18
100%
31-0
100%
31-0
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