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ALABAMA

CRIMSON TIDEALA

11-3  |  Road

90
FINAL
Wed, Jan 7 • 9:00 PM ET
Memorial Gymnasium (TN)
View Odds Details →

VANDERBILT

COMMODORESVAN

14-0  |  Home

96
AI Model Win Probability
CRIMSON TIDE
0%
📊
COMMODORES
100%
CRIMSON TIDE --
COMMODORES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
152.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-34.0
ALABAMA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +34.0 points (Alabama)
Crimson TideALA (-3.5) 0 CommodoresVAN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Crimson Tide Cover

100.0%

Commodores Cover

0.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ALA -34.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ALA)

ALA By 1-7 points

0.4%

ALA By 8-14 points

2.2%

VAN By 1-7 points

0.0%

VAN By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
93
ALABAMA
59
VANDERBILT
Simulated Score
88
ALABAMA
71
VANDERBILT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Crimson Tide Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Crimson Tide Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Crimson Tide (-4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -34.0
D
Sim Crimson Tide (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u179.5 Loss
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Sim u179.5 Win
Proj Total: 159.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 7, 2026 ALA @ VAN 90 - 96
Jan 21, 2025 VAN @ ALA 87 - 103
Jan 6, 2024 ALA @ VAN 78 - 75
Jan 31, 2023 VAN @ ALA 44 - 101
Jan 17, 2023 ALA @ VAN 78 - 66
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +11.1% more
Alabama: 42.7 vs Vanderbilt: 37.9
Blocks (L5) +9.8% more
Alabama: 5.8 vs Vanderbilt: 5.2
Steals (L5) +16.2% more
Vanderbilt: 8.3 vs Alabama: 7.1
Turnovers (L5) +10.7% more
Vanderbilt: 10.1 vs Alabama: 9.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ALA Score 93.0 90
VAN Score 59.0 96
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.5 / 37.8 35.0 / 22.0
Assists 19.4 / 17.8 11.0 / 9.0
Blocks 5.2 / 5.8 6.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 51.5 / 45.2 46.0 / 37.0
Free Throw % 82.5 / 76.5 70.0 / 76.0
Rebounding 37.9 / 42.7 38.0 / 49.0
Steals 8.3 / 7.1 9.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 10.1 / 9.2 8.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
70%MONEY30%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
76%MONEY24%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ALA
25-10-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 8.5 ATS +/-: +1.1
VAN Advantage
27-9-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 10.8 ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ALA
15-19-0 (44.1%)
Margin: 8.5 ATS +/-: +1.1
VAN Advantage
18-18-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 10.8 ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
ALA
17-16-1
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: +0.2
VAN
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VAN
ALA
VAN
ALA
ML
69% 25-11
63% 22-13
56% 18-14
58% 19-14
ATS
78% 28-8
60% 21-14
56% 18-14
58% 19-14
TTL
58% 21-15
63% 22-13
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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