Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bears @ Owls MOST @ KENN

MISSOURI STATE

BEARSMOST

9-5  |  Road

80
FINAL
Wed, Jan 7 • 7:00 PM ET
KSU Convocation Center
View Odds Details →

KENNESAW STATE

OWLSKENN

8-6  |  Home

90
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
100%
📊
OWLS
0%
BEARS --
OWLS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
134.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
KENNESAW STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (Kennesaw State)
BearsMOST (-3.5) 0 OwlsKENN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

0.8%

Owls Cover

99.2%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around KENN -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KENN)

MOST By 1-7 points

0.6%

MOST By 8-14 points

0.1%

KENN By 1-7 points

4.0%

KENN By 8-14 points

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
55
MISSOURI STATE
79
KENNESAW STATE
Simulated Score
68
MISSOURI STATE
73
KENNESAW STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Owls Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Owls Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Owls (-6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -24.0
D
Sim Owls (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u152.5 Loss
Proj Total: 134.0
D
Sim u152.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 18, 2026 KENN @ MOST 91 - 87
Jan 7, 2026 MOST @ KENN 80 - 90
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +29.7% more
Kennesaw State: 44.2 vs Missouri State: 34.1
Turnovers (L5) +19.1% more
Kennesaw State: 13.3 vs Missouri State: 11.2
Blocks (L5) +10.0% more
Kennesaw State: 4.6 vs Missouri State: 4.2
Free Throw % (L5) +8.3%
Kennesaw State: 79.3% vs Missouri State: 71.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MOST Score 55.0 80
KENN Score 79.0 90
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 26.3 / 38.0 41.0 / 35.0
Assists 13.0 / 13.1 19.0 / 15.0
Blocks 4.6 / 4.2 10.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 36.9 / 45.8 52.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 79.3 / 71.0 78.0 / 58.0
Rebounding 44.2 / 34.1 36.0 / 37.0
Steals 6.9 / 6.9 8.0 / 13.0
Turnovers 13.3 / 11.2 18.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
16%TICKETS84%
38%MONEY62%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MOST
16-18-0 (47.1%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
KENN Advantage
21-14-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 6.8 ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MOST Advantage
18-13-0 (58.1%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
KENN
15-16-1 (48.4%)
Margin: 6.8 ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MOST
19-12-0
O: 61.3% / U: 38.7% Total +/-: +3.2
KENN
14-17-1
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KENN
MOST
KENN
MOST
ML
74% 25-9
65% 22-12
72% 23-9
62% 21-13
ATS
71% 24-10
68% 23-11
73% 24-9
62% 21-13
TTL
56% 19-15
44% 15-19
100% 33-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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