Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Huskies @ Friars CONN @ PROV

UCONN

HUSKIESCONN

14-1  |  Road

103
FINAL
Wed, Jan 7 • 7:00 PM ET
Amica Mutual Pavilion
View Odds Details →

PROVIDENCE

FRIARSPROV

8-6  |  Home

98
AI Model Win Probability
HUSKIES
100%
📊
FRIARS
0%
HUSKIES --
FRIARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
162.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
PROVIDENCE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (Providence)
HuskiesCONN (-3.5) 0 FriarsPROV (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Huskies Cover

0.8%

Friars Cover

99.2%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PROV -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PROV)

CONN By 1-7 points

0.6%

CONN By 8-14 points

0.1%

PROV By 1-7 points

4.0%

PROV By 8-14 points

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
69
UCONN
93
PROVIDENCE
Simulated Score
72
UCONN
78
PROVIDENCE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Friars Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Friars Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Friars (+9.5) Win
Proj Spread: -24.0
D
Sim Friars (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o152.5 Win
Proj Total: 162.0
D
Sim u152.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 27, 2026 PROV @ CONN 81 - 87
Jan 7, 2026 CONN @ PROV 103 - 98
Mar 1, 2025 CONN @ PROV 75 - 63
Jan 5, 2025 PROV @ CONN 84 - 87
Mar 9, 2024 CONN @ PROV 74 - 60
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +7.9%
Providence: 78.1% vs UConn: 70.2%
Blocks (L5) +37.7% more
UConn: 6.7 vs Providence: 4.2
Assists (L5) +27.0% more
UConn: 19.0 vs Providence: 13.8
Rebounding (L5) +8.4% more
UConn: 42.7 vs Providence: 39.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CONN Score 69.0 103
PROV Score 93.0 98
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.2 / 32.5 58.0 / 56.0
Assists 13.8 / 19.0 15.0 / 25.0
Blocks 4.2 / 6.7 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 43.8 / 48.0 50.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 78.1 / 70.2 74.0 / 83.0
Rebounding 39.1 / 42.7 37.0 / 33.0
Steals 6.6 / 6.7 4.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 12.0 / 12.7 17.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
96%TICKETS4%
64%MONEY36%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
76%MONEY24%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
79%MONEY21%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CONN Advantage
34-6-0 (85.0%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: -1.1
PROV
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-: +0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CONN
18-22-0 (45.0%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: -1.1
PROV Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-: +0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
CONN
19-21-0
O: 47.5% / U: 52.5% Total +/-: -1.5
PROV
22-11-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +8.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PROV
CONN
PROV
CONN
ML
59% 19-13
76% 29-9
67% 20-10
66% 23-12
ATS
50% 16-16
74% 28-10
67% 20-10
66% 23-12
TTL
44% 14-18
50% 19-19
100% 30-0
100% 35-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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