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DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

13-23  |  Road

100
FINAL
Tue, Jan 6 • 11:00 PM ET
Golden 1 Center
View Odds Details →

SACRAMENTO

KINGSSAC

8-28  |  Home

98
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
100%
📊
KINGS
0%
MAVERICKS --
KINGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
230.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
SACRAMENTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Sacramento)
MavericksDAL (-3.5) 0 KingsSAC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

27.4%

Kings Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SAC -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)

DAL By 1-7 points

16.9%

DAL By 8-14 points

6.8%

SAC By 1-7 points

26.8%

SAC By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
112
DALLAS
118
SACRAMENTO
Simulated Score
112
DALLAS
118
SACRAMENTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Kings Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Kings Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Kings (+5) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Kings (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u231.5 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Sim u231.5 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 26, 2026 SAC @ DAL 130 - 121
Jan 6, 2026 DAL @ SAC 100 - 98
Dec 27, 2025 DAL @ SAC 107 - 113
Apr 16, 2025 DAL @ SAC 120 - 106
Mar 3, 2025 SAC @ DAL 122 - 98
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +23.6% more
Sacramento: 8.2 vs Dallas: 6.6
Blocks (L5) +21.0% more
Dallas: 6.4 vs Sacramento: 5.1
Assists (L5) +15.3% more
Dallas: 25.3 vs Sacramento: 21.4
Rebounding (L5) +10.6% more
Dallas: 44.1 vs Sacramento: 39.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 112.0 100
SAC Score 118.0 98
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.5 / 33.2 29.0 / 30.0
Assists 21.4 / 25.3 23.0 / 19.0
Blocks 5.1 / 6.4 6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 43.5 / 50.8 42.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 78.8 / 79.5 65.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 39.4 / 44.1 43.0 / 55.0
Steals 8.2 / 6.6 11.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 14.2 / 14.7 13.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
59%MONEY41%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
69%MONEY31%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL Advantage
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
SAC
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
SAC
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAC
DAL
SAC
DAL
ML
55% 55-45
62% 63-39
61% 50-32
54% 44-37
ATS
54% 52-45-3
67% 68-34
61% 50-32
54% 44-37
TTL
58% 57-42-1
59% 60-41-1
100% 82-0
100% 81-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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