Home / NBA Projections NBA / Lakers @ Pelicans LAL @ NO

LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

22-11  |  Road

111
FINAL
Tue, Jan 6 • 8:00 PM ET
Smoothie King Center
View Odds Details →

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

8-29  |  Home

103
AI Model Win Probability
LAKERS
0%
📊
PELICANS
100%
LAKERS --
PELICANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
241.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+5.0
NEW ORLEANS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
LakersLAL (-3.5) 0 PelicansNO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lakers Cover

30.9%

Pelicans Cover

69.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NO +5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NO)

LAL By 1-7 points

27.2%

LAL By 8-14 points

23.0%

NO By 1-7 points

18.6%

NO By 8-14 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
123
LOS ANGELES
118
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
112
LOS ANGELES
118
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lakers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pelicans Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pelicans (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: +5.0
D
Sim Pelicans (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u244.5 Win
Proj Total: 241.0
D
Sim u244.5 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 3, 2026 NO @ LAL 101 - 110
Jan 6, 2026 LAL @ NO 111 - 103
Nov 30, 2025 NO @ LAL 121 - 133
Nov 14, 2025 LAL @ NO 118 - 104
Apr 4, 2025 NO @ LAL 108 - 124
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5) +4.6%
Los Angeles: 50.3% vs New Orleans: 45.6%
Blocks (L5) +67.1% more
New Orleans: 7.7 vs Los Angeles: 4.6
Turnovers (L5) +10.7% more
New Orleans: 17.3 vs Los Angeles: 15.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.9%
New Orleans: 34.0% vs Los Angeles: 31.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAL Score 123.0 111
NO Score 118.0 103
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.0 / 31.1 25.0 / 35.0
Assists 25.0 / 26.6 28.0 / 30.0
Blocks 7.7 / 4.6 2.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 45.6 / 50.3 44.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 77.2 / 78.2 72.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 43.7 / 40.6 44.0 / 44.0
Steals 8.0 / 7.6 8.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 17.3 / 15.7 16.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
72%MONEY28%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
66%MONEY34%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAL Advantage
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
NO
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAL
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
NO Advantage
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
LAL
NO
LAL
ML
62% 98-61
61% 68-43
58% 48-35
54% 49-42
ATS
68% 107-51-1
61% 67-43-1
58% 48-35
54% 49-42
TTL
75% 119-40
61% 66-43-2
100% 83-0
100% 91-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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