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CLEVELAND

CAVALIERSCLE

20-17  |  Road

120
FINAL
Tue, Jan 6 • 7:00 PM ET
Gainbridge Fieldhouse
View Odds Details →

INDIANA

PACERSIND

6-30  |  Home

116
AI Model Win Probability
CAVALIERS
0%
📊
PACERS
100%
CAVALIERS --
PACERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
226.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (Cleveland)
CavaliersCLE (-3.5) 0 PacersIND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cavaliers Cover

97.7%

Pacers Cover

2.3%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CLE -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)

CLE By 1-7 points

8.0%

CLE By 8-14 points

18.6%

IND By 1-7 points

1.7%

IND By 8-14 points

0.3%

AI Model Projected Score
123
CLEVELAND
103
INDIANA
Simulated Score
113
CLEVELAND
118
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cavaliers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pacers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cavaliers (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Sim Pacers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u236.5 Win
Proj Total: 226.0
D
Sim u236.5 Win
Proj Total: 231.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 5, 2026 IND @ CLE 108 - 117
Jan 6, 2026 CLE @ IND 120 - 116
Dec 1, 2025 CLE @ IND 135 - 119
Nov 21, 2025 IND @ CLE 109 - 120
May 13, 2025 IND @ CLE 114 - 105
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +54.2% more
Cleveland: 7.6 vs Indiana: 3.5
Steals (L5) +23.0% more
Cleveland: 8.9 vs Indiana: 6.9
Rebounding (L5) +18.8% more
Cleveland: 48.1 vs Indiana: 39.1
Turnovers (L5) +15.2% more
Cleveland: 15.9 vs Indiana: 13.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLE Score 123.0 120
IND Score 103.0 116
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.2 / 36.5 46.0 / 38.0
Assists 29.8 / 28.0 32.0 / 33.0
Blocks 3.5 / 7.6 4.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 50.0 / 47.0 46.0 / 56.0
Free Throw % 78.2 / 78.3 74.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 39.1 / 48.1 32.0 / 48.0
Steals 6.9 / 8.9 10.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 13.5 / 15.9 14.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
68%MONEY32%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
62%MONEY38%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE Advantage
60-40-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: -2.4
IND
19-63-0 (23.2%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
40-60-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: -2.4
IND Advantage
40-42-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0% Total +/-: +0.9
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
CLE
IND
CLE
ML
48% 47-50
60% 69-46
54% 45-38
56% 55-44
ATS
59% 57-40
67% 75-37-3
54% 45-38
56% 55-44
TTL
54% 52-45
59% 68-47
100% 83-0
100% 99-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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