Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Lobos @ Rams UNM @ CSU

NEW MEXICO

LOBOSUNM

11-3  |  Road

80
FINAL
Tue, Jan 6 • 9:00 PM ET
Moby Arena
View Odds Details →

COLORADO STATE

RAMSCSU

10-4  |  Home

70
AI Model Win Probability
LOBOS
100%
📊
RAMS
0%
LOBOS --
RAMS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
132.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
COLORADO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Colorado State)
LobosUNM (-3.5) 0 RamsCSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lobos Cover

27.4%

Rams Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CSU -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CSU)

UNM By 1-7 points

16.9%

UNM By 8-14 points

6.8%

CSU By 1-7 points

26.8%

CSU By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
63
NEW MEXICO
69
COLORADO STATE
Simulated Score
71
NEW MEXICO
76
COLORADO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rams Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rams Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rams (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Rams (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u143.5 Loss
Proj Total: 132.0
D
Sim u143.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 4, 2026 CSU @ UNM 82 - 74
Jan 6, 2026 UNM @ CSU 80 - 70
Feb 5, 2025 CSU @ UNM 65 - 87
Dec 28, 2024 UNM @ CSU 76 - 68
Mar 15, 2024 CSU @ UNM 61 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +20.8% more
Colorado State: 12.0 vs New Mexico: 9.9
Steals (L5) +8.5% more
Colorado State: 6.5 vs New Mexico: 6.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.8%
Colorado State: 34.6% vs New Mexico: 31.7%
Rebounding (L5) +8.7% more
New Mexico: 36.8 vs Colorado State: 33.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNM Score 63.0 80
CSU Score 69.0 70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.6 / 31.7 28.0 / 44.0
Assists 13.2 / 13.0 15.0 / 14.0
Blocks 3.1 / 3.1 0.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 45.2 / 44.5 46.0 / 53.0
Free Throw % 71.6 / 76.1 82.0 / 62.0
Rebounding 33.6 / 36.8 31.0 / 31.0
Steals 6.5 / 6.0 3.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 12.0 / 9.9 14.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
46%MONEY54%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
42%MONEY58%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNM Advantage
26-11-0 (70.3%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +2.6
CSU
21-13-0 (61.8%)
Margin: 4.6 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNM
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +2.6
CSU Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 4.6 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
UNM
23-12-0
O: 65.7% / U: 34.3% Total +/-: +2.1
CSU
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CSU
UNM
CSU
UNM
ML
56% 19-15
57% 21-16
65% 20-11
74% 25-9
ATS
62% 21-13
57% 21-16
65% 20-11
74% 25-9
TTL
56% 19-15
41% 15-22
100% 31-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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