Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Rockets @ Huskies TOL @ NIU

TOLEDO

ROCKETSTOL

8-6  |  Road

75
FINAL
Tue, Jan 6 • 8:00 PM ET
NIU Convocation Center
View Odds Details →

NORTHERN ILLINOIS

HUSKIESNIU

5-9  |  Home

61
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
0%
📊
HUSKIES
100%
ROCKETS --
HUSKIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
211.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
RocketsTOL (-3.5) 0 HuskiesNIU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockets Cover

46.0%

Huskies Cover

54.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NIU +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NIU)

TOL By 1-7 points

26.2%

TOL By 8-14 points

16.9%

NIU By 1-7 points

24.3%

NIU By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
106
TOLEDO
105
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Simulated Score
72
TOLEDO
78
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rockets Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Huskies Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Huskies (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim Huskies (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o161.5 Loss
Proj Total: 211.0
D
Sim u161.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 24, 2026 NIU @ TOL 69 - 79
Jan 6, 2026 TOL @ NIU 75 - 61
Feb 1, 2025 NIU @ TOL 85 - 89
Feb 27, 2024 NIU @ TOL 75 - 72
Jan 23, 2024 TOL @ NIU 89 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +46.6% more
Toledo: 2.5 vs Northern Illinois: 1.4
Free Throw % (L5) +7.3%
Toledo: 77.2% vs Northern Illinois: 69.9%
Turnovers (L5) +115.2% more
Northern Illinois: 17.4 vs Toledo: 8.1
Steals (L5) +26.4% more
Northern Illinois: 7.4 vs Toledo: 5.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOL Score 106.0 75
NIU Score 105.0 61
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.1 / 28.9 34.0 / 42.0
Assists 12.2 / 12.8 13.0 / 15.0
Blocks 1.4 / 2.5 4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 42.7 / 41.4 39.0 / 50.0
Free Throw % 69.9 / 77.2 64.0 / 63.0
Rebounding 38.3 / 38.5 37.0 / 31.0
Steals 7.4 / 5.9 7.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 17.4 / 8.1 21.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
89%TICKETS11%
85%MONEY15%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOL Advantage
19-15-0 (55.9%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +2.0
NIU
9-21-0 (30.0%)
Margin: -8.3 ATS +/-: -3.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOL Advantage
18-13-1 (58.1%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +2.0
NIU
13-15-0 (46.4%)
Margin: -8.3 ATS +/-: -3.1
⚖️ Over/Under
TOL
13-19-0
O: 40.6% / U: 59.4% Total +/-: -0.8
NIU
8-20-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4% Total +/-: -4.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NIU
TOL
NIU
TOL
ML
67% 20-10
48% 16-17
66% 19-10
61% 20-13
ATS
63% 19-11
48% 16-17
66% 19-10
61% 20-13
TTL
67% 20-10
64% 21-12
100% 29-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
UConn Men's Basketball 2026-27 TV Schedule Revealed: Up to Seven…
courant 1 day, 5 hours ago
Kansas Jayhawks Set Program Record with 706 Yards, Blank Middle …
si 5 days ago
Dan Hurley's UConn Overhaul: How 10 New Faces Fit National Title…
courant 1 week, 5 days ago
Kyrie Irving Declares Himself Ready, Cooper Flagg Reveals Growth…
yardbarker 1 week, 6 days ago
Chris Spatola, Duke Basketball Analyst and Mike Krzyzewski's Son…
cbsnews 2 weeks, 1 day ago