Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bulldogs @ Spartans FRES @ SJSU

FRESNO STATE

BULLDOGSFRES

6-8  |  Road

70
FINAL
Tue, Jan 6 • 10:00 PM ET
Provident Credit Union Event Center
View Odds Details →

SAN JOSÉ STATE

SPARTANSSJSU

5-9  |  Home

55
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
0%
📊
SPARTANS
100%
BULLDOGS --
SPARTANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
162.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-34.0
FRESNO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +34.0 points (Fresno State)
BulldogsFRES (-3.5) 0 SpartansSJSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

100.0%

Spartans Cover

0.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around FRES -34.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FRES)

FRES By 1-7 points

0.4%

FRES By 8-14 points

2.2%

SJSU By 1-7 points

0.0%

SJSU By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
98
FRESNO STATE
64
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Simulated Score
68
FRESNO STATE
72
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bulldogs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Spartans Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bulldogs (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -34.0
D
Sim Spartans (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o149.5 Loss
Proj Total: 162.0
D
Sim u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 3, 2026 SJSU @ FRES 68 - 82
Jan 6, 2026 FRES @ SJSU 70 - 55
Mar 8, 2025 FRES @ SJSU 68 - 92
Feb 4, 2025 SJSU @ FRES 94 - 91
Feb 6, 2024 FRES @ SJSU 69 - 57
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +18.5% more
Fresno State: 7.8 vs San José State: 6.3
Rebounding (L5) +17.4% more
Fresno State: 34.3 vs San José State: 28.4
Assists (L5) +15.3% more
Fresno State: 13.2 vs San José State: 11.2
Turnovers (L5) +13.8% more
Fresno State: 14.7 vs San José State: 12.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FRES Score 98.0 70
SJSU Score 64.0 55
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.0 / 33.9 29.0 / 33.0
Assists 11.2 / 13.2 14.0 / 17.0
Blocks 2.4 / 1.4 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 42.2 / 41.7 38.0 / 52.0
Free Throw % 82.8 / 79.8 71.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 28.4 / 34.3 21.0 / 39.0
Steals 6.3 / 7.8 6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 12.7 / 14.7 11.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
40%MONEY60%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
88%MONEY12%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FRES Advantage
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +2.5
SJSU
9-24-0 (27.3%)
Margin: -6.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FRES Advantage
21-10-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +2.5
SJSU
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -6.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
FRES
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: -4.3
SJSU
21-11-0
O: 65.6% / U: 34.4% Total +/-: +5.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SJSU
FRES
SJSU
FRES
ML
73% 24-9
59% 19-13
62% 20-12
74% 23-8
ATS
73% 24-9
75% 24-8
62% 20-12
74% 23-8
TTL
61% 20-13
56% 18-14
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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