Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Aggies @ Falcons USU @ AF

UTAH STATE

AGGIESUSU

12-1  |  Road

99
FINAL
Tue, Jan 6 • 9:00 PM ET
Clune Arena
View Odds Details →

AIR FORCE

FALCONSAF

3-11  |  Home

62
AI Model Win Probability
AGGIES
0%
📊
FALCONS
100%
AGGIES --
FALCONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
173.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-29.0
UTAH STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +29.0 points (Utah State)
AggiesUSU (-3.5) 0 FalconsAF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Aggies Cover

99.8%

Falcons Cover

0.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around USU -29.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USU)

USU By 1-7 points

1.4%

USU By 8-14 points

5.8%

AF By 1-7 points

0.1%

AF By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
101
UTAH STATE
72
AIR FORCE
Simulated Score
72
UTAH STATE
65
AIR FORCE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Aggies Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Aggies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Aggies (+22.5) Win
Proj Spread: -29.0
D
Sim Aggies (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o139.5 Win
Proj Total: 173.0
D
Sim u139.5 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 6, 2026 USU @ AF 99 - 62
Mar 8, 2025 AF @ USU 47 - 87
Jan 25, 2025 USU @ AF 87 - 58
Mar 1, 2024 AF @ USU 60 - 72
Jan 2, 2024 USU @ AF 88 - 60
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +45.8% more
Utah State: 17.6 vs Air Force: 9.5
Steals (L5) +23.7% more
Utah State: 8.8 vs Air Force: 6.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +18.2%
Utah State: 37.7% vs Air Force: 19.6%
Rebounding (L5) +18.1% more
Utah State: 35.0 vs Air Force: 28.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USU Score 101.0 99
AF Score 72.0 62
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 19.6 / 37.7 30.0 / 46.0
Assists 9.5 / 17.6 11.0 / 23.0
Blocks 3.5 / 3.4 2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 39.4 / 55.4 41.0 / 58.0
Free Throw % 57.3 / 73.5 74.0 / 65.0
Rebounding 28.7 / 35.0 25.0 / 40.0
Steals 6.7 / 8.8 3.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 14.2 / 12.2 13.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
94%TICKETS6%
95%MONEY5%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
87%MONEY13%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USU Advantage
29-7-0 (80.6%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +1.2
AF
3-29-0 (9.4%)
Margin: -18.3 ATS +/-: -4.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USU Advantage
16-19-0 (45.7%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +1.2
AF
10-21-1 (32.3%)
Margin: -18.3 ATS +/-: -4.9
⚖️ Over/Under
USU
20-15-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +1.9
AF
19-13-0
O: 59.4% / U: 40.6% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AF
USU
AF
USU
ML
81% 26-6
49% 17-18
62% 20-12
66% 21-11
ATS
69% 22-10
74% 26-9
62% 20-12
67% 22-11
TTL
69% 22-10
51% 18-17
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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