SAN DIEGO STATE
AZTECSSDSU
9-4 | Road
73
NEVADA
WOLF PACKNEV
11-3 | Home
68
AI Model Win Probability
AZTECS
0%
WOLF PACK
100%
AZTECS
--
WOLF PACK
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
133.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.0
SAN DIEGO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (San Diego State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SDSU -19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SDSU)
SDSU By 1-7 points
9.3%
SDSU By 8-14 points
20.1%
NEV By 1-7 points
2.2%
NEV By 8-14 points
0.4%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego State
76
SAN DIEGO STATE
Nevada
57
NEVADA
Simulated Score
San Diego State
68
SAN DIEGO STATE
Nevada
71
NEVADA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Aztecs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Wolf Pack
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Aztecs (+1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Sim
Wolf Pack (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u141.5
Win
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Sim
u141.5
Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 14, 2026
NEV @ SDSU
57 - 71
Jan 6, 2026
SDSU @ NEV
73 - 68
Mar 8, 2025
NEV @ SDSU
61 - 80
Jan 25, 2025
SDSU @ NEV
69 - 50
Feb 9, 2024
SDSU @ NEV
66 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+34.8% more
San Diego State: 13.0
vs
Nevada: 8.5
Assists (L5)
+33.6% more
San Diego State: 18.2
vs
Nevada: 12.1
Rebounding (L5)
+19.6% more
San Diego State: 39.1
vs
Nevada: 31.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.9%
San Diego State: 42.5%
vs
Nevada: 36.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SDSU Score
76.0
73
NEV Score
57.0
68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.6 / 42.5
29.0 / 24.0
Assists
12.1 / 18.2
17.0 / 18.0
Blocks
5.0 / 4.2
1.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
45.1 / 50.5
36.0 / 52.0
Free Throw %
72.9 / 71.3
90.0 / 68.0
Rebounding
31.4 / 39.1
31.0 / 38.0
Steals
8.2 / 7.9
8.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
8.5 / 13.0
9.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SDSU
Advantage
22-11-0
(66.7%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: -0.7
NEV
24-13-0
(64.9%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SDSU
15-16-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: -0.7
NEV
Advantage
22-15-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
SDSU
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6%
Total +/-: +5.5
NEV
21-16-0
O: 56.8% / U: 43.2%
Total +/-: +2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NEV
SDSU
NEV
SDSU
ML
62%
23-14
62%
20-12
73%
27-10
72%
23-9
ATS
73%
27-10
69%
22-10
73%
27-10
72%
23-9
TTL
49%
18-19
75%
24-8
100%
37-0
100%
32-0
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