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NC STATE

WOLFPACKNCSU

10-5  |  Road

79
FINAL
Tue, Jan 6 • 9:00 PM ET
Conte Forum
View Odds Details →

BOSTON COLLEGE

EAGLESBC

7-7  |  Home

71
AI Model Win Probability
WOLFPACK
100%
📊
EAGLES
0%
WOLFPACK --
EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
141.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-41.0
BOSTON COLLEGE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +41.0 points (Boston College)
WolfpackNCSU (-3.5) 0 EaglesBC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wolfpack Cover

0.0%

Eagles Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BC -41.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BC)

NCSU By 1-7 points

0.0%

NCSU By 8-14 points

0.0%

BC By 1-7 points

0.0%

BC By 8-14 points

0.4%

AI Model Projected Score
50
NC STATE
91
BOSTON COLLEGE
Simulated Score
68
NC STATE
71
BOSTON COLLEGE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Eagles Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Eagles Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Eagles (+11.5) Win
Proj Spread: -41.0
D
Sim Eagles (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u141.5 Loss
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Sim u141.5 Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 6, 2026 NCSU @ BC 79 - 71
Feb 15, 2025 BC @ NCSU 62 - 70
Feb 24, 2024 BC @ NCSU 70 - 81
Dec 2, 2023 NCSU @ BC 84 - 78
Feb 11, 2023 NCSU @ BC 92 - 62
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +105.0% more
Boston College: 4.9 vs NC State: 2.4
Rebounding (L5) +9.3% more
Boston College: 37.5 vs NC State: 34.3
Steals (L5) +39.9% more
NC State: 8.6 vs Boston College: 5.2
Assists (L5) +28.7% more
NC State: 14.2 vs Boston College: 10.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NCSU Score 50.0 79
BC Score 91.0 71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 26.5 / 31.8 50.0 / 59.0
Assists 10.1 / 14.2 11.0 / 18.0
Blocks 4.9 / 2.4 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 36.2 / 42.9 51.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 66.6 / 76.0 73.0 / 50.0
Rebounding 37.5 / 34.3 33.0 / 27.0
Steals 5.2 / 8.6 2.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 10.1 / 11.4 16.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
95%TICKETS5%
75%MONEY25%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
18%MONEY82%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NCSU Advantage
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 6.9 ATS +/-: -1.1
BC
11-20-0 (35.5%)
Margin: -3.3 ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NCSU Advantage
16-17-1 (48.5%)
Margin: 6.9 ATS +/-: -1.1
BC
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: -3.3 ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
NCSU
21-13-0
O: 61.8% / U: 38.2% Total +/-: +6.0
BC
12-19-0
O: 38.7% / U: 61.3% Total +/-: -3.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BC
NCSU
BC
NCSU
ML
61% 19-12
59% 20-14
61% 17-11
55% 18-15
ATS
73% 22-8-1
71% 24-10
61% 17-11
55% 18-15
TTL
61% 19-12
71% 24-10
100% 28-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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