Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Red Storm @ Bulldogs SJU @ BUT

ST. JOHN'S

RED STORMSJU

9-5  |  Road

84
FINAL
Tue, Jan 6 • 7:00 PM ET
Hinkle Fieldhouse
View Odds Details →

BUTLER

BULLDOGSBUT

10-5  |  Home

70
AI Model Win Probability
RED STORM
0%
📊
BULLDOGS
100%
RED STORM --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
133.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-41.0
ST. JOHN'S
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +41.0 points (St. John's)
Red StormSJU (-3.5) 0 BulldogsBUT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Storm Cover

100.0%

Bulldogs Cover

0.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SJU -41.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SJU)

SJU By 1-7 points

0.0%

SJU By 8-14 points

0.4%

BUT By 1-7 points

0.0%

BUT By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
87
ST. JOHN'S
46
BUTLER
Simulated Score
73
ST. JOHN'S
78
BUTLER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Red Storm Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Red Storm (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -41.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u163.5 Win
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Sim u163.5 Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 28, 2026 BUT @ SJU 70 - 92
Jan 6, 2026 SJU @ BUT 84 - 70
Mar 13, 2025 BUT @ SJU 57 - 78
Feb 26, 2025 SJU @ BUT 76 - 70
Jan 4, 2025 BUT @ SJU 62 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +60.5% more
St. John's: 6.9 vs Butler: 2.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.4%
St. John's: 35.7% vs Butler: 28.3%
Assists (L5) +16.9% more
Butler: 16.7 vs St. John's: 14.3
Free Throw % (L5) +6.8%
Butler: 80.7% vs St. John's: 74.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SJU Score 87.0 84
BUT Score 46.0 70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.3 / 35.7 41.0 / 37.0
Assists 16.7 / 14.3 11.0 / 16.0
Blocks 2.7 / 6.9 1.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 42.2 / 40.1 50.0 / 50.0
Free Throw % 80.7 / 74.0 83.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 39.6 / 41.2 34.0 / 28.0
Steals 7.0 / 7.4 3.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 11.3 / 12.1 21.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
81%MONEY19%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
71%MONEY29%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
57%MONEY43%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SJU Advantage
30-7-0 (81.1%)
Margin: 11.3 ATS +/-: +1.8
BUT
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SJU Advantage
22-13-1 (62.9%)
Margin: 11.3 ATS +/-: +1.8
BUT
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
SJU
13-23-0
O: 36.1% / U: 63.9% Total +/-: -3.6
BUT
17-14-1
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2% Total +/-: +2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUT
SJU
BUT
SJU
ML
62% 20-12
62% 18-11
65% 20-11
62% 18-11
ATS
56% 18-14
66% 19-10
65% 20-11
62% 18-11
TTL
50% 16-16
59% 17-12
100% 31-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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