Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bearcats @ Mountaineers CIN @ WVU

CINCINNATI

BEARCATSCIN

8-6  |  Road

60
FINAL
Tue, Jan 6 • 7:00 PM ET
WVU Coliseum
View Odds Details →

WEST VIRGINIA

MOUNTAINEERSWVU

9-5  |  Home

62
AI Model Win Probability
BEARCATS
0%
📊
MOUNTAINEERS
100%
BEARCATS --
MOUNTAINEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
155.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Cincinnati)
BearcatsCIN (-3.5) 0 MountaineersWVU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bearcats Cover

98.2%

Mountaineers Cover

1.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CIN -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

CIN By 1-7 points

6.8%

CIN By 8-14 points

16.9%

WVU By 1-7 points

1.4%

WVU By 8-14 points

0.2%

AI Model Projected Score
88
CINCINNATI
67
WEST VIRGINIA
Simulated Score
68
CINCINNATI
72
WEST VIRGINIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bearcats Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mountaineers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bearcats (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim Mountaineers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o132.5 Loss
Proj Total: 155.0
D
Sim u132.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 5, 2026 WVU @ CIN 59 - 54
Jan 6, 2026 CIN @ WVU 60 - 62
Feb 19, 2025 CIN @ WVU 59 - 62
Feb 2, 2025 WVU @ CIN 63 - 50
Mar 12, 2024 WVU @ CIN 85 - 90
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +46.3% more
Cincinnati: 4.5 vs West Virginia: 2.4
Rebounding (L5) +11.9% more
Cincinnati: 37.7 vs West Virginia: 33.2
Steals (L5) +48.3% more
West Virginia: 6.7 vs Cincinnati: 4.5
Free Throw % (L5) +5.8%
West Virginia: 75.2% vs Cincinnati: 69.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIN Score 88.0 60
WVU Score 67.0 62
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.8 / 32.8 48.0 / 34.0
Assists 15.2 / 15.9 9.0 / 19.0
Blocks 2.4 / 4.5 1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 46.4 / 43.2 46.0 / 35.0
Free Throw % 75.2 / 69.4 54.0 / 44.0
Rebounding 33.2 / 37.7 37.0 / 33.0
Steals 6.7 / 4.5 6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 11.2 / 11.9 15.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
24%MONEY76%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
40%MONEY60%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: -0.2
WVU Advantage
21-14-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: -0.2
WVU Advantage
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
12-21-0
O: 36.4% / U: 63.6% Total +/-: -4.6
WVU
13-21-1
O: 38.2% / U: 61.8% Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WVU
CIN
WVU
CIN
ML
63% 22-13
67% 22-11
76% 26-8
74% 23-8
ATS
60% 21-14
64% 21-12
76% 26-8
74% 23-8
TTL
40% 14-21
67% 22-11
100% 34-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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