Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Revolutionaries @ Flyers GW @ DAY

GEORGE WASHINGTON

REVOLUTIONARIESGW

11-4  |  Road

72
FINAL
Tue, Jan 6 • 8:00 PM ET
UD Arena
View Odds Details →

DAYTON

FLYERSDAY

11-4  |  Home

79
AI Model Win Probability
REVOLUTIONARIES
100%
📊
FLYERS
0%
REVOLUTIONARIES --
FLYERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
155.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-25.0
DAYTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +25.0 points (Dayton)
RevolutionariesGW (-3.5) 0 FlyersDAY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Revolutionaries Cover

0.6%

Flyers Cover

99.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DAY -25.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAY)

GW By 1-7 points

0.5%

GW By 8-14 points

0.1%

DAY By 1-7 points

3.3%

DAY By 8-14 points

10.7%

AI Model Projected Score
65
GEORGE WASHINGTON
90
DAYTON
Simulated Score
78
GEORGE WASHINGTON
70
DAYTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Flyers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Revolutionaries Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Flyers (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -25.0
D
Sim Revolutionaries (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o154.5 Loss
Proj Total: 155.0
D
Sim u154.5 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 27, 2026 DAY @ GW 68 - 66
Jan 6, 2026 GW @ DAY 72 - 79
Jan 4, 2025 DAY @ GW 62 - 82
Jan 30, 2024 GW @ DAY 61 - 83
Jan 21, 2023 DAY @ GW 69 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +27.9% more
Dayton: 9.7 vs George Washington: 7.6
Free Throw % (L5) +4.4%
Dayton: 76.5% vs George Washington: 72.1%
Assists (L5) +31.5% more
George Washington: 18.6 vs Dayton: 12.7
Turnovers (L5) +26.2% more
George Washington: 11.7 vs Dayton: 8.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GW Score 65.0 72
DAY Score 90.0 79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.7 / 38.7 30.0 / 36.0
Assists 12.7 / 18.6 17.0 / 9.0
Blocks 3.6 / 4.4 0.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 42.1 / 49.5 42.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 76.5 / 72.1 90.0 / 60.0
Rebounding 32.4 / 39.9 28.0 / 35.0
Steals 9.7 / 7.6 14.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 8.6 / 11.7 11.0 / 22.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
27%MONEY73%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
59%MONEY41%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GW
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -0.2
DAY Advantage
25-12-0 (67.6%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GW
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -0.2
DAY Advantage
18-19-0 (48.7%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
GW
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -0.4
DAY
13-24-0
O: 35.1% / U: 64.9% Total +/-: -2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAY
GW
DAY
GW
ML
65% 24-13
63% 22-13
64% 23-13
60% 21-14
ATS
68% 25-12
69% 24-11
64% 23-13
60% 21-14
TTL
57% 21-16
60% 21-14
100% 36-0
100% 35-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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