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COLORADO

AVALANCHECOL

31-3-7  |  Road

2
FINAL
Tue, Jan 6 • 7:00 PM ET
Benchmark International Arena
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

LIGHTNINGTB

25-13-3  |  Home

4
Goaltending
Scott Wedgewood
GOALTENDER

Scott Wedgewood

#41 | Goaltender
@
Andrei Vasilevskiy
GOALTENDER

Andrei Vasilevskiy

#88 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Scott Wedgewood None-None 3.10 0.889 --
Andrei Vasilevskiy None-None 2.00 0.939 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
3.10 GAA Ldr 2.00
0.889 Save % Ldr 0.939
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
AVALANCHE
100%
📊
LIGHTNING
0%
AVALANCHE --
LIGHTNING --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Tampa Bay)
AvalancheCOL (-3.5) 0 LightningTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Avalanche Cover

30.9%

Lightning Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TB -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

COL By 1 goal

12.1%

COL By 2-3 goals

9.3%

TB By 1 goal

19.7%

TB By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3
COLORADO
4
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
3
COLORADO
4
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lightning Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lightning Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lightning (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Lightning (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 6, 2026 COL @ TB 2 - 4
Nov 4, 2025 TB @ COL 2 - 3
Nov 25, 2024 COL @ TB 2 - 8
Oct 30, 2024 TB @ COL 5 - 2
Feb 15, 2024 COL @ TB 3 - 6
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5) +24.9% more
Tampa Bay: 12.0 vs Colorado: 9.6
Power Play % (L5) +23.2%
Tampa Bay: 40.4% vs Colorado: 17.2%
Takeaways (L5) +29.6% more
Colorado: 4.5 vs Tampa Bay: 3.1
Shots on Goal (L5) +22.3% more
Colorado: 32.6 vs Tampa Bay: 25.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COL Score 3.0 2
TB Score 4.0 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 12.0 / 9.6 16.0 / 19.0
Faceoff % 44.7 / 55.3 30.9 / 69.1
Hits 16.5 / 15.3 21.0 / 20.0
Power Play % 40.4 / 17.2 50.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 25.3 / 32.6 28.0 / 33.0
Takeaways 3.1 / 4.5 5.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
60%MONEY40%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
76%MONEY24%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
69%MONEY31%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
COL
TB
COL
ML
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
ATS
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
TTL
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
100% 3-0
67% 2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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