IOWA
HAWKEYESIOWA
12-2 | Road
67
MINNESOTA
GOLDEN GOPHERSMINN
9-5 | Home
70
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKEYES
0%
GOLDEN GOPHERS
100%
HAWKEYES
--
GOLDEN GOPHERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
126.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
IOWA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (Iowa)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around IOWA -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IOWA)
IOWA By 1-7 points
8.0%
IOWA By 8-14 points
18.6%
MINN By 1-7 points
1.7%
MINN By 8-14 points
0.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Iowa
73
IOWA
Minnesota
53
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
Iowa
70
IOWA
Minnesota
78
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Hawkeyes
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Golden Gophers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Hawkeyes (+5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Sim
Golden Gophers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u130.5
Loss
Proj Total: 126.0
D
Sim
u130.5
Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 6, 2026
IOWA @ MINN
67 - 70
Jan 21, 2025
MINN @ IOWA
72 - 67
Feb 11, 2024
MINN @ IOWA
85 - 90
Jan 15, 2024
IOWA @ MINN
86 - 77
Feb 12, 2023
IOWA @ MINN
68 - 56
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+40.6% more
Iowa: 3.7
vs
Minnesota: 2.2
Steals (L5)
+26.2% more
Iowa: 9.3
vs
Minnesota: 6.9
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.2%
Iowa: 79.8%
vs
Minnesota: 73.6%
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.7%
Iowa: 52.6%
vs
Minnesota: 49.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IOWA Score
73.0
67
MINN Score
53.0
70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.9 / 35.1
25.0 / 27.0
Assists
22.4 / 16.2
15.0 / 12.0
Blocks
2.2 / 3.7
3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
49.0 / 52.6
47.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
73.6 / 79.8
75.0 / 77.0
Rebounding
33.9 / 32.0
28.0 / 39.0
Steals
6.9 / 9.3
10.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
11.4 / 10.5
10.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IOWA
Advantage
24-13-0
(64.9%)
Margin: 8.3
ATS +/-: +1.1
MINN
15-18-0
(45.5%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IOWA
Advantage
21-16-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 8.3
ATS +/-: +1.1
MINN
14-18-1
(43.8%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
IOWA
20-17-0
O: 54.1% / U: 46.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
MINN
13-20-0
O: 39.4% / U: 60.6%
Total +/-: -3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MINN
IOWA
MINN
IOWA
ML
48%
16-17
59%
22-15
71%
22-9
78%
28-8
ATS
55%
18-15
76%
28-9
71%
22-9
78%
28-8
TTL
52%
17-16
57%
21-16
100%
31-0
100%
36-0
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