Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Falcons @ Golden Flashes BGSU @ KENT

BOWLING GREEN

FALCONSBGSU

11-4  |  Road

93
FINAL
Tue, Jan 6 • 7:00 PM ET
M.A.C. Center
View Odds Details →

KENT STATE

GOLDEN FLASHESKENT

11-3  |  Home

96
AI Model Win Probability
FALCONS
100%
📊
GOLDEN FLASHES
0%
FALCONS --
GOLDEN FLASHES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
183.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
KENT STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Kent State)
FalconsBGSU (-3.5) 0 Golden FlashesKENT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Falcons Cover

30.9%

Golden Flashes Cover

69.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around KENT -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KENT)

BGSU By 1-7 points

18.6%

BGSU By 8-14 points

8.0%

KENT By 1-7 points

27.2%

KENT By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
89
BOWLING GREEN
94
KENT STATE
Simulated Score
69
BOWLING GREEN
73
KENT STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Golden Flashes Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Golden Flashes Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Golden Flashes (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Golden Flashes (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o153.5 Win
Proj Total: 183.0
D
Sim u153.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 17, 2026 KENT @ BGSU 78 - 71
Jan 6, 2026 BGSU @ KENT 93 - 96
Feb 18, 2025 KENT @ BGSU 91 - 84
Jan 28, 2025 BGSU @ KENT 57 - 75
Mar 15, 2024 KENT @ BGSU 73 - 60
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +34.7% more
Kent State: 15.1 vs Bowling Green: 11.2
Blocks (L5) +31.4% more
Kent State: 3.1 vs Bowling Green: 2.4
Free Throw % (L5) +4.8%
Kent State: 77.1% vs Bowling Green: 72.3%
Steals (L5) +33.0% more
Bowling Green: 11.3 vs Kent State: 7.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BGSU Score 89.0 93
KENT Score 94.0 96
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 26.9 / 34.2 44.0 / 40.0
Assists 13.6 / 18.1 16.0 / 11.0
Blocks 3.1 / 2.4 5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 42.5 / 51.5 54.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 77.1 / 72.3 89.0 / 87.0
Rebounding 35.8 / 33.3 25.0 / 31.0
Steals 7.6 / 11.3 3.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 15.1 / 11.2 10.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
32%MONEY68%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
59%MONEY41%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BGSU
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: -0.1
KENT Advantage
24-10-0 (70.6%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BGSU Advantage
14-14-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: -0.1
KENT
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
BGSU
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1% Total +/-: -1.2
KENT
17-14-1
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2% Total +/-: +4.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KENT
BGSU
KENT
BGSU
ML
53% 18-16
66% 21-11
65% 22-12
56% 18-14
ATS
65% 22-12
72% 23-9
65% 22-12
56% 18-14
TTL
44% 15-19
53% 17-15
100% 34-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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