Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Eagles @ Cardinals EMU @ BALL

EASTERN MICHIGAN

EAGLESEMU

7-8  |  Road

74
FINAL
Tue, Jan 6 • 7:00 PM ET
Worthen Arena
View Odds Details →

BALL STATE

CARDINALSBALL

4-10  |  Home

52
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
0%
📊
CARDINALS
100%
EAGLES --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-33.0
EASTERN MICHIGAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +33.0 points (Eastern Michigan)
EaglesEMU (-3.5) 0 CardinalsBALL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Eagles Cover

100.0%

Cardinals Cover

0.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around EMU -33.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (EMU)

EMU By 1-7 points

0.5%

EMU By 8-14 points

2.7%

BALL By 1-7 points

0.0%

BALL By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
91
EASTERN MICHIGAN
58
BALL STATE
Simulated Score
68
EASTERN MICHIGAN
72
BALL STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Eagles Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Eagles (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -33.0
D
Sim Cardinals (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o137.5 Loss
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim u137.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 6, 2026 EMU @ BALL 74 - 52
Feb 11, 2025 EMU @ BALL 84 - 86
Feb 24, 2024 EMU @ BALL 58 - 56
Jan 16, 2024 BALL @ EMU 76 - 62
Feb 25, 2023 BALL @ EMU 68 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +44.5% more
Eastern Michigan: 4.3 vs Ball State: 2.4
Rebounding (L5) +18.7% more
Eastern Michigan: 37.7 vs Ball State: 30.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.2%
Eastern Michigan: 35.6% vs Ball State: 29.3%
Steals (L5) +67.2% more
Ball State: 8.8 vs Eastern Michigan: 5.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
EMU Score 91.0 74
BALL Score 58.0 52
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.3 / 35.6 31.0 / 52.0
Assists 13.8 / 11.4 10.0 / 16.0
Blocks 2.4 / 4.3 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 41.1 / 42.6 33.0 / 58.0
Free Throw % 76.1 / 67.3 87.0 / 83.0
Rebounding 30.7 / 37.7 18.0 / 37.0
Steals 8.8 / 5.3 6.0 / 1.0
Turnovers 10.8 / 10.6 7.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
52%MONEY48%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
33%MONEY67%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
EMU
10-21-0 (32.3%)
Margin: -2.8 ATS +/-: +1.1
BALL Advantage
12-19-0 (38.7%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
EMU Advantage
20-10-0 (66.7%)
Margin: -2.8 ATS +/-: +1.1
BALL
14-14-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
EMU
9-21-0
O: 30.0% / U: 70.0% Total +/-: -3.6
BALL
9-19-1
O: 32.1% / U: 67.9% Total +/-: -6.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BALL
EMU
BALL
EMU
ML
43% 13-17
65% 20-11
62% 18-11
70% 21-9
ATS
67% 20-10
65% 20-11
62% 18-11
70% 21-9
TTL
50% 15-15
71% 22-9
100% 29-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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