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DUKE

BLUE DEVILSDUKE

13-1  |  Road

84
FINAL
Tue, Jan 6 • 7:00 PM ET
KFC Yum! Center
View Odds Details →

LOUISVILLE

CARDINALSLOU

11-3  |  Home

73
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE DEVILS
100%
📊
CARDINALS
0%
BLUE DEVILS --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
181.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
LOUISVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Louisville)
Blue DevilsDUKE (-3.5) 0 CardinalsLOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Blue Devils Cover

30.9%

Cardinals Cover

69.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LOU -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LOU)

DUKE By 1-7 points

18.6%

DUKE By 8-14 points

8.0%

LOU By 1-7 points

27.2%

LOU By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
88
DUKE
93
LOUISVILLE
Simulated Score
79
DUKE
72
LOUISVILLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cardinals Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Blue Devils Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cardinals (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Blue Devils (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o161.5 Loss
Proj Total: 181.0
D
Sim u161.5 Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 26, 2026 LOU @ DUKE 52 - 83
Jan 6, 2026 DUKE @ LOU 84 - 73
Mar 15, 2025 LOU @ DUKE 62 - 73
Dec 8, 2024 DUKE @ LOU 76 - 65
Feb 28, 2024 LOU @ DUKE 59 - 84
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +12.0% more
Louisville: 41.8 vs Duke: 37.3
Free Throw % (L5) +5.4%
Louisville: 80.9% vs Duke: 75.5%
Steals (L5) +34.9% more
Duke: 8.9 vs Louisville: 5.8
Turnovers (L5) +9.9% more
Duke: 13.5 vs Louisville: 12.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DUKE Score 88.0 84
LOU Score 93.0 73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.1 / 35.9 32.0 / 30.0
Assists 16.0 / 17.3 13.0 / 10.0
Blocks 4.3 / 4.5 1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 45.7 / 48.8 40.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 80.9 / 75.5 75.0 / 68.0
Rebounding 41.8 / 37.3 37.0 / 39.0
Steals 5.8 / 8.9 7.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 12.1 / 13.5 14.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
80%MONEY20%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
62%MONEY38%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DUKE Advantage
35-3-0 (92.1%)
Margin: 18.0 ATS +/-: +1.6
LOU
24-11-0 (68.6%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DUKE Advantage
20-18-0 (52.6%)
Margin: 18.0 ATS +/-: +1.6
LOU
17-18-0 (48.6%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
DUKE
14-24-0
O: 36.8% / U: 63.2% Total +/-: -3.2
LOU
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -3.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LOU
DUKE
LOU
DUKE
ML
63% 22-13
71% 27-11
71% 24-10
73% 24-9
ATS
71% 25-10
79% 30-8
71% 24-10
73% 24-9
TTL
63% 22-13
47% 18-20
100% 34-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Luke Loucks Opens Up on Recruiting, Offensive Rebounding, and Ro…
si 1 day, 1 hour ago
Cayden Boozer's Return to Duke: Trusting the Vision in a Loaded …
si 1 day, 13 hours ago
Duke Dominates ACC Preseason Poll, But Wide-Open Race Looms Behi…
yahoo 3 days, 7 hours ago
Duke's Cameron Crazies Crowned Top Student Section for 2026-27
yahoo 6 days, 7 hours ago
LSU vs. McNeese: The Deep In-State Ties Behind Saturday's Rare S…
lsureveille 1 week ago