Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Wolverines @ Nittany Lions MICH @ PSU

MICHIGAN

WOLVERINESMICH

13-0  |  Road

74
FINAL
Tue, Jan 6 • 7:00 PM ET
Bryce Jordan Center
View Odds Details →

PENN STATE

NITTANY LIONSPSU

9-5  |  Home

72
AI Model Win Probability
WOLVERINES
0%
📊
NITTANY LIONS
100%
WOLVERINES --
NITTANY LIONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
138.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-32.0
MICHIGAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +32.0 points (Michigan)
WolverinesMICH (-3.5) 0 Nittany LionsPSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wolverines Cover

99.9%

Nittany Lions Cover

0.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MICH -32.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MICH)

MICH By 1-7 points

0.6%

MICH By 8-14 points

3.3%

PSU By 1-7 points

0.1%

PSU By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
85
MICHIGAN
53
PENN STATE
Simulated Score
68
MICHIGAN
72
PENN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Wolverines Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nittany Lions Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Wolverines (+22.5) Win
Proj Spread: -32.0
D
Sim Nittany Lions (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u167.5 Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Sim u167.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 5, 2026 PSU @ MICH 69 - 110
Jan 6, 2026 MICH @ PSU 74 - 72
Jan 27, 2025 PSU @ MICH 72 - 76
Mar 13, 2024 MICH @ PSU 57 - 66
Jan 7, 2024 MICH @ PSU 73 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +67.0% more
Michigan: 5.8 vs Penn State: 1.9
Assists (L5) +38.2% more
Michigan: 20.9 vs Penn State: 12.9
Rebounding (L5) +30.7% more
Michigan: 43.4 vs Penn State: 30.1
Turnovers (L5) +18.7% more
Michigan: 11.8 vs Penn State: 9.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MICH Score 85.0 74
PSU Score 53.0 72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.3 / 33.7 27.0 / 30.0
Assists 12.9 / 20.9 10.0 / 15.0
Blocks 1.9 / 5.8 1.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 43.0 / 53.6 35.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 71.7 / 70.7 78.0 / 74.0
Rebounding 30.1 / 43.4 43.0 / 37.0
Steals 8.7 / 9.1 7.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 9.6 / 11.8 10.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
91%TICKETS9%
91%MONEY9%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
84%MONEY16%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MICH Advantage
37-3-0 (92.5%)
Margin: 17.8 ATS +/-: +3.6
PSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -5.7 ATS +/-: -3.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MICH Advantage
19-21-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 17.8 ATS +/-: +3.6
PSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -5.7 ATS +/-: -3.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MICH
17-23-0
O: 42.5% / U: 57.5% Total +/-: -1.6
PSU
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: +1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PSU
MICH
PSU
MICH
ML
72% 23-9
78% 31-9
56% 18-14
63% 24-14
ATS
72% 23-9
78% 31-9
56% 18-14
63% 24-14
TTL
66% 21-11
57% 23-17
100% 32-0
100% 38-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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