ALABAMA STATE
HORNETSALST
4-10 | Road
79
ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
GOLDEN LIONSUAPB
4-10 | Home
90
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
0%
GOLDEN LIONS
100%
HORNETS
--
GOLDEN LIONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
126.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
ALABAMA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (Alabama State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ALST -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ALST)
ALST By 1-7 points
5.8%
ALST By 8-14 points
15.3%
UAPB By 1-7 points
1.1%
UAPB By 8-14 points
0.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Alabama State
74
ALABAMA STATE
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
52
ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
Simulated Score
Alabama State
70
ALABAMA STATE
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
74
ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Hornets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Golden Lions
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Hornets (+1)
Loss
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim
Golden Lions (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u160.0
Loss
Proj Total: 126.0
D
Sim
u160.0
Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 14, 2026
UAPB @ ALST
61 - 79
Jan 5, 2026
ALST @ UAPB
79 - 90
Feb 15, 2025
ALST @ UAPB
75 - 63
Jan 6, 2025
UAPB @ ALST
91 - 93
Feb 17, 2024
UAPB @ ALST
80 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+24.1% more
Alabama State: 9.5
vs
Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 7.2
Assists (L5)
+126.9% more
Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 24.5
vs
Alabama State: 10.8
Rebounding (L5)
+26.7% more
Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 39.9
vs
Alabama State: 31.5
Field Goal % (L5)
+13.0%
Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 54.1%
vs
Alabama State: 41.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ALST Score
74.0
79
UAPB Score
52.0
90
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
42.7 / 33.2
53.0 / 32.0
Assists
24.5 / 10.8
17.0 / 10.0
Blocks
2.6 / 2.3
3.0 / 10.0
Field Goal %
54.1 / 41.2
45.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
77.2 / 74.2
83.0 / 73.0
Rebounding
39.9 / 31.5
41.0 / 29.0
Steals
7.2 / 9.5
5.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
12.9 / 13.7
16.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ALST
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -4.1
ATS +/-: -1.5
UAPB
Advantage
13-19-0
(40.6%)
Margin: -3.8
ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ALST
13-18-0
(41.9%)
Margin: -4.1
ATS +/-: -1.5
UAPB
Advantage
13-16-1
(44.8%)
Margin: -3.8
ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
ALST
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8%
Total +/-: -1.6
UAPB
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3%
Total +/-: -0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UAPB
ALST
UAPB
ALST
ML
74%
23-8
65%
20-11
73%
19-7
76%
19-6
ATS
73%
22-8-1
65%
20-11
73%
19-7
76%
19-6
TTL
68%
21-10
52%
16-15
100%
26-0
100%
25-0
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